This is a crisis of state intervention

In the past few posts, I reproduced the economist Ludwig von Mises’ 1949 explanation of “the crisis of interventionism”, which insisted that the “third way” is a system of economic organisation which cannot last. We must choose between either state socialism or a free society. State socialism would be chaos but “Nothing suggests the belief that progress toward more satisfactory conditions is inevitable or a relapse into very unsatisfactory conditions impossible.”

Many seem to believe we are in a crisis of capitalism but, as I have said in the Commons, if this is capitalism, I am not a capitalist. Leaving aside our chronically inflationary system of money and all the damage it has done to society and the economy, any reasonable person looking at the growth of state spending ought to admit that ours is a fundamentally interventionist economy:

GDP at Factor Cost 1900- 2008 with implied Budget forecasts for 2009 and 2010

Click for source

Those of us born after about 1970 have lived exclusively in an age of big government, whoever has been in power: government usually so big it has lived beyond its means. According to charts provided by the same author, total taxation hasn’t been genuinely low since the Second World War:

GDP at factor cost 1900-2008 with implied Budget forecasts for 2009 and 2010

Click for source

Commenting on their report Soviet Britain, The Times pointed out that “The state now looms far larger in many parts of Britain than it did in former Soviet satellite states such as Hungary and Slovakia as they emerged from communism in the 1990s, when state spending accounted for about 60% of their economies.”

So, even before beginning to consider the role of the various regulators of major sections of our economy — such as finance, water, energy, transport, media etc — it is obvious that we are not at the end of a century of laissez-faire capitalism. To suggest that this is a crisis of capitalism looks like either an act of wilful misunderstanding or one of denial. Perhaps it is an act of redefinition of the word “capitalism”. In Living with Leviathan, Smith wrote:

It is certainly not being suggested that New Labour economic policy is consciously modelled on pre-war fascist precedents but rather that a combination of the Marxist- inspired New Left ideas of the former student radicals of the 1960s and 1970s, who now compose so much of the Labour Party establishment, when combined with an intense nanny-style authoritarianism, and the practical need to get elected, produced a synthesis that ended up with an economic approach that was functionally hard to distinguish from that of fascism.

And that is the economic system that we have today.

We are in a crisis which has arisen out of the systematic intervention of authority in the cooperation of individuals, families and firms. Quite apart from any other factor, the Bank of England and the world’s other central banks held interest rates too low for too long, creating an illusion of prosperity based on the increasing extension of bank credit. It was not only an illusion which could not last, it was also one which funded the lavish spending of the previous government.

Even now, the governments of the western world are attempting to mitigate the bitterly painful consequences of the errors of the past. As we go through the extremely difficult days ahead, I hope people will increasingly realise that the enemy which delivered us into this mess was the state. If we really care about the poor, the vulnerable and those without hope in our society, we will respond to this crisis by choosing liberty.

The Crisis of Interventionism, part 3: The End of Interventionism

Blogging will be light for a few days for reasons which will become apparent when I return to it. In the meantime, I wanted to offer some prescient writing from Mises’ 1949 masterpiece, Human Action on the crisis of well-intentioned economic intervention.

Via Human Action chapter XXXVI: The End of Interventionism, including the “third way”:

The interventionist interlude must come to an end because interventionism cannot lead to a permanent system of social organization. The reasons are threefold.

First: Restrictive measures always restrict output and the amount of goods available for consumption. Whatever arguments may be advanced in favor of definite restrictions and prohibitions, such measures in themselves can never constitute a system of social production.

Second: All varieties of interference with the market phenomena not only fail to achieve the ends aimed at by their authors and supporters, but bring about a state of affairs which–from the point of view of their authors’ and advocates’ valuations–is less desirable than the previous state of affairs which they were designed to alter. If one wants to correct their manifest unsuitableness and preposterousness by supplementing the first acts of intervention with more and more of such acts, one must go farther and farther until the market economy has been entirely destroyed and socialism has been substituted for it.

Third: Interventionism aims at confiscating the “surplus” of one part of the population and at giving it to the other part. Once this surplus is exhausted by total confiscation, a further continuation of this policy is impossible.

Marching ever further along the path of interventionism, all those countries that have not adopted full socialism of the Russian pattern are more and more approaching what is called a planned economy, i.e., socialism of the German or Hindenburg pattern. In regard to economic policies, there is nowadays little difference among the various nations and, within each nation, among the various political parties and pressure groups. The historical party names have lost their significance. There are, as far as economic policy is concerned, practically only two factions left: the advocates of the Lenin method of all-round nationalization and the interventionists. The advocates of the free market economy have little influence upon the course of events. What economic freedom still exists is the outcome of the failure of the measures resorted to by the governments, rather than of an intentional policy.

It is difficult to find out how many of the supporters of interventionism are conscious of the fact that the policies they recommend directly lead toward socialism, and how many hold fast to the illusion that what they are aiming at is a middle-of-the-road system that can last as a permanent system-a “third solution” of the problem of society’s economic organization. At any rate, it is certain that all interventionists believe that the government, and the government alone, is called upon to decide in every single case whether one has to let things go as the market determines them or whether an act of intervention is needed. This means that they are prepared to tolerate the supremacy of the consumers only as far as it brings about a result of which they themselves approve. As soon as something happens in the economy that any of the various bureaucratic institutions does not like or that arouses the anger of a pressure group, people clamor for new interventions, controls, and restrictions. But for the inefficiency of the law-givers and the laxity, carelessness, and corruption of many of the functionaries, the last vestiges of the market economy would have long since disappeared.

The unsurpassed efficiency of capitalism never before manifested itself in a more beneficial way than in this age of heinous anticapitalism. While governments, political parties, and labor unions are sabotaging all business operations, the spirit of enterprise still succeeds in increasing the quantity and improving the quality of products and in rendering them more easily accessible to the consumers. In the countries that have not yet entirely abandoned the capitalistic system the common man enjoys today a standard of living for which the princes and nabobs of ages gone by would have envied him. A short time ago the demagogues blamed capitalism for the poverty of the masses. Today they rather blame capitalism for the “affluence” that it bestows upon the common man.

It has been shown that the managerial system, i.e., the assignment of ancillary tasks in the conduct of business to responsible helpers to whom a certain amount of discretion can be granted, is possible only within the frame of the profit system. What characterizes the manager as such and imparts to him a condition different from that of the mere technician is that, within the sphere of his assignment, he himself determines the methods by which his actions should conform to the profit principle. In a socialist system in which there is neither economic calculation nor capital accounting nor profit computation, there is no room left for managerial activities either. But as long as a socialist commonwealth is still in a position to calculate on the ground of prices determined on foreign markets, it can also utilize a quasi-managerial hierarchy to some extent.

It is a poor makeshift to call any age an age of transition. In the living world there is always change. Every age is an age of transition. We may distinguish between social systems that can last and such as are inevitable transitory because they are self-destructive. It has already been pointed out in what sense interventionism liquidates itself and must lead to socialism of the German pattern. Some European countries have already reached this phase, and nobody knows whether or not the United States will follow suit. But as long as the United States clings to the market economy and does not adopt the system of full government control of business, the socialist economies of Western Europe will still be in a position to calculate. Their conduct of business still lacks the most characteristic feature of socialist conduct; it is still based on economic calculation. It is therefore in every respect very different from what it would become if all the world were to turn toward socialism.

It is often said that one half of the world cannot remain committed to the market economy when the other half is socialist, and vice versa. However, there is no reason to assume that such a partition of the earth and the coexistence of the two systems is impossible. If this is really the case, then the present economic system of the countries that have discarded capitalism may go on for an indefinite period of time. Its operation may result in social disintegration, chaos, and misery for the peoples. But neither a low standard of living nor progressive impoverishment automatically liquidates an economic system. It gives way to a more efficient system only if people themselves are intelligent enough to comprehend the advantages such a change might bring them. Or it may be destroyed by foreign invaders provided with better military equipment by the greater efficiency of their own economic system.

Optimists hope that at least those nations which have in the past developed the capitalist market economy and its civilization will cling to this system in the future too. There are certainly as many signs to confirm as to disprove such an expectation. It is vain to speculate about the outcome of the great ideological conflict between the principles of private ownership and public ownership, of individualism and totalitarianism, of freedom and authoritarian regimentation. All that we can know beforehand about the result of this struggle can be condensed in the following three statements:

1. We have no knowledge whatever about the existence and operation of agencies which would bestow final victory in this clash on those ideologies whose application will secure the preservation and further intensification of societal bonds and the improvement of mankind’s material well-being. Nothing suggests the belief that progress toward more satisfactory conditions is inevitable or a relapse into very unsatisfactory conditions impossible.

2. Men must choose between the market economy and socialism. They cannot evade deciding between these alternatives by adopting a “middle-of-the-road” position, whatever name they may give to it.

3. In abolishing economic calculation the general adoption of socialism would result in complete chaos and the disintegration of social cooperation under the division of labor.

Tomorrow, some evidence that the current crisis is a crisis of interventionism.

The Crisis of Interventionism, part 2: The Exhaustion of the Reserve Fund

Blogging will be light for a few days for reasons which will become apparent when I return to it. In the meantime, I wanted to offer some prescient writing from Mises’ 1949 masterpiece, Human Action on the crisis of well-intentioned economic intervention.

Via Human Action chapter XXXVI: The Exhaustion of the Reserve Fund:

The idea underlying all interventionist policies is that the higher income and wealth of the more affluent part of the population is a fund which can be freely used for the improvement of the conditions of the less prosperous. The essence of the interventionist policy is to take from one group to give to another. It is confiscation and distribution. Every measure is ultimately justified by declaring that it is fair to curb the rich for the benefit of the poor.

In the field of public finance progressive taxation of incomes and estates is the most characteristic manifestation of this doctrine. Tax the rich and spend the revenue for the improvement of the condition of the poor, is the principle of contemporary budgets. In the field of industrial relations shortening the hours of work, raising wages, and a thousand other measures are recommended under the assumption that they favor the employee and burden the employer. Every issue of government and community affairs is dealt with exclusively from the point of view of this principle.

An illustrative example is provided by the methods applied in the operation of nationalized and municipalized enterprises. These enterprises very often result in financial failure; their accounts regularly show losses burdening the state or the city treasury. It is of no use to investigate whether the deficits are due to the notorious inefficiency of the public conduct of business enterprises or, at least partly, to the inadequacy of the prices at which the commodities or services are sold to the customers. What matters is the fact that the taxpayers must cover these deficits. The interventionists fully approve of this arrangement. They passionately reject the two other possible solutions: selling the enterprises to private entrepreneurs or raising the prices charged to the customers to such a height that no further deficit remains. The first of these proposals is in their eyes manifestly reactionary because they believe that the inevitable trend of history is toward more and more socialization. The second is deemed “antisocial” because it places a heavier load upon the consuming masses. It is fairer to make the taxpayers, i.e., the wealthy citizens, bear the burden. Their ability to pay is greater than that of the average people riding the nationalized railroads and the municipalized subways, trolleys, and busses. To ask that such public utilities should be self-supporting, is, say the interventionists, a relic of the old-fashioned ideas of orthodox finance. One might as well aim at making the roads and the public schools self-supporting.

It is not necessary to argue with the advocates of this deficit policy. It is obvious that recourse to this ability-to-pay principle depends on the existence of such incomes and fortunes as can still be taxed away. It can no longer be resorted to once these extra funds have been exhausted by taxes and other interventionist measures.

This is precisely the present state of affairs in most of the European countries. The United States has not yet gone so far; but if the actual trend of its economic policies is not radically altered very soon, it will be in the same condition in a few years.

For the sake of argument we may disregard all the other consequences which the full triumph of the ability-to-pay principle must bring about and concentrate upon its financial aspects.

The interventionist in advocating additional public expenditure is not aware of the fact that the funds available are limited. He does not realize that increasing expenditure in one department enjoins restricting it in other departments. In his opinion there is plenty of money available. The income and wealth of the rich can be freely tapped. In recommending a greater allowance for the schools he simply stresses the point that it would be a good thing to spend more for education. He does not venture to prove that to raise the budgetary allowance for schools is more expedient than to raise that of another department, e.g., that of health. It never occurs to him that grave arguments could be advanced in favor of restricting public spending and lowering the burden of taxation. The champions of cuts in the budget are in his eyes merely the defenders of the manifestly unfair class interests of the rich.

With the present height of income and inheritance tax rates, this reserve fund out of which the interventionists seek to comer all public expenditure is rapidly shrinking. It has practically disappeared altogether in most European countries. In the United States the recent advances in tax rates produced only negligible revenue results beyond what would be produced by a progression which stopped at much lower rates. High surtax rates for the rich are very popular with interventionist dilettantes and demagogues, but they secure only modest additions to the revenue. From day to day it becomes more obvious that large-scale additions to the amount of public expenditure cannot be financed by “soaking the rich,” but that the burden must be carried by the masses. The traditional tax policy of the age of interventionism, its glorified devices of progressive taxation and lavish spending have been carried to a point at which their absurdity can no longer be concealed. The notorious principle that, whereas private expenditures depend on the size of income available, public revenues must be regulated according to expenditures, refutes itself. Henceforth, governments will have to realize that one dollar cannot be spent twice, and that the various items of government expenditure are in conflict with one another. Every penny of additional government spending will have to be collected from precisely those people who hitherto have been intent upon shifting the main burden to other groups. Those anxious to get subsidies will themselves have to foot the bill. The deficits of publicly owned and operated enterprises will be charged to the bulk of the population.

The situation in the employer-employee nexus will be analogous. The popular doctrine contends that wage earners are reaping “social gains” at the expense of the unearned income of the exploiting classes. The strikers, it is said, do not strike against the consumers but against “management.” There is no reason to raise the prices of products when labor costs are increased; the difference must be borne by employers. But when more and more of the share of the entrepreneurs and capitalists is absorbed by taxes, higher wage rates, and other “social gains” of employees, and by price ceilings, nothing remains for such a buffer function. Then it becomes evident that every wage raise, with its whole momentum, must affect the prices of the products and that the social gains of each group fully correspond to the social losses of the other groups. Every strike becomes, even in the short run and not only in the long run, a strike against the rest of the people.

An essential point in the social philosophy of interventionism is the existence of an inexhaustible fund which can be squeezed forever. The whole system of interventionism collapses when this fountain is drained off: The Santa Claus principle liquidates itself

Tomorrow, The End of Interventionism.

The Crisis of Interventionism, part 1: The Harvest of Interventionism

Blogging will be light for a few days for reasons which will become apparent when I return to it. In the meantime, I wanted to offer some prescient writing from Mises’ 1949 masterpiece, Human Action on the crisis of well-intentioned economic intervention.

Via Human Action chapter XXXVI: The Harvest of Interventionism:

The interventionist policies as practiced for many decades by all governments of the capitalistic West have brought about all those effects which the economists predicted. There are wars and civil wars, ruthless oppression of the masses by clusters of self-appointed dictators, economic depressions, mass unemployment, capital consumption, famines.

However, it is not these catastrophic events which have led to the crisis of interventionism. The interventionist doctrinaires and their followers explain all these undesired consequences as the unavoidable features of capitalism. As they see it, it is precisely these disasters that clearly demonstrate the necessity of intensifying interventionism. The failures of the interventionist policies do not in the least impair the popularity of the implied doctrine. They are so interpreted as to strengthen, not to lessen, the prestige of these teachings. As a vicious economic theory cannot be simply refuted by historical experience, the interventionist propagandists have been able to go on in spite of all the havoc they have spread.

Yet the age of interventionism is reaching its end. Interventionism has exhausted all its potentialities and must disappear.

Tomorrow, The Exhaustion of the Reserve Fund.

Economics in One Lesson: two chapters on employment

I’m currently publishing a précis of Henry Hazlitt’s brilliant 1946 book, Economics in One Lesson, prepared by Michael Dowsett during his internship. The index page is here.

This week, two chapters on employment:

Buy or download Economics in One Lesson.

I didn’t seek election to roll forward Labour’s surveillance state

Via Government web surveillance: ‘Expensive, impractical, totalitarian’ – Telegraph:

The Government’s plan to make Internet Service Providers capture personal communications data is nothing new. It was brought up under the last Labour government as the “Intercept Modernisation Programme” and received heavy criticism from the Tory party in opposition.

The article concentrates on the practicalities of recording people’s internet activity. For a more philosophical point of view about why it shouldn’t be attempted, see Sam Bowman’s Our road to serfdom. Meanwhile, the Deputy Prime Minister has made “dramatic interventions” in defence of civil liberties.

One warning came from Michael Portillo, who apparently told The Moral Maze that government routinely abuses its powers. Another may be seen in Europe’s history of oppression enabled by technology: I quoted Albert Speer’s testimony at Nuremberg in an article for Big Brother Watch.

After re-reading this Open Europe report, I wonder the extent to which the Government’s plans are directed by the EU. I am having someone check.

What is sure is that I certainly did not stand for election in order to help roll forward Labour’s surveillance state. My posts tagged 1984 and privacy demonstrate my long standing outrage at the creeping development of state intrusion in the UK.

The Coalition Agreement says in section 3:

We will implement a full programme of measures to reverse the substantial erosion of civil liberties and roll back state intrusion.

That is what I expect the Government to deliver.

The truth is out about politics, politicians, officials and bureaucracies – the IEA publishes a primer on Public Choice Theory

With the fuel scare over the last week, we saw how a few people in power can shift peoples’ expectations radically and drive them in large numbers to take the same actions. In technical if graceless terms, we have seen how big players shift economic expectations to produce herding. Of course people are responsible for their own actions but politicians and officials influence how people think and therefore what they do. Now, with the release of the IEA’s short primer on public choice theory, we learn how and why government is bound to have its failures, whoever is in power.

Of course, the present Government is an exemplar of competence and virtue compared to the last one but the fact remains that the institutions of the state set up big players in society who can and do disrupt the course of peoples’ lives. Over the last week, Government ministers have caused people to take actions which have jammed traffic and started fights (in two locations in Wycombe last Friday). Diane Hill is critically ill in hospital with severe burns after decanting petrol in her kitchen.

This provides one recent and obvious example of cause and effect in the sphere of government. Less obvious but more damaging is the relationship between the actions of the central banks and peoples’ choices about saving and borrowing. The fundamental cause of the present economic crisis is that interest rates were too low for too long. That was a choice by the ultimate big players in the economy: the philosopher kings of the central banks. It’s widely reported that people don’t save enough for their retirement, but is it any wonder in an environment of low interest rates, open currency debasement and taxpayer-funded pension promises? I could go on.

It’s common for politicians and officials to discuss “market failure” before setting out how the government will correct those failures. However, government fails too and with widespread, profound consequences for us all. Why?

Dr Eamonn Butler’s Public Choice – A Primer explains:

  • Public Choice applies the methods of economics to the theory and practice of politics and government. This approach has given us important insights into the nature of democratic decision-making.
  • Just as self-interest motivates people’s private commercial choices, it also affects their communal decisions. People also ‘economise’ as voters, lobby groups, politicians and officials, aiming to maximise the outcome they personally desire, for minimum effort. Consequently the well-developed tools of economics – such as profit and loss, price and efficiency – can be used to analyse politics too.
  • Collective decision-making is necessary in some areas. However, the fact that the market may fail to provide adequately in such areas does not necessarily mean that government can do things better. There is ‘government failure’ too. Political decision-making is not a dispassionate pursuit of the ‘public interest’, but can involve a struggle between different personal and group interests.
  • There is no single ‘public interest’ anyway. We live in a world of value-pluralism: different people have different values and different interests. Competition between competing interests is inevitable. This makes it vital to study how such competing interests and demands are resolved by the political process.
  • The self-interest of political parties lies in getting the votes they need to win power and position. They may pursue the ‘median voter’ – the position at the centre, where voters bunch. Government officials will also have their own interests, which may include maximising their budgets.
  • In this struggle between interests, small groups with sharply focused interests have more influence in decision-making than much larger groups with more diffused concerns, such as consumers and taxpayers. The influence of interest groups may be further increased because electors are ‘rationally ignorant’ of the political debate, knowing that their single vote is unlikely to make a difference, and that the future effects of any policy are unpredictable.
  • Because of the enormous benefits that can be won from the political process, it is rational for interest groups to spend large sums on lobbying for special privileges – an activity known as ‘rent seeking’.
  • Interest groups can increase their effect still further by ‘logrolling’ – agreeing to trade votes and support each other’s favoured initiatives. These factors make interest group minorities particularly powerful in systems of representative democracy, such as legislatures.
  • In direct democracy, using mechanisms such as referenda, the majority voting rule that is commonly adopted allows just 51 per cent of the population to exploit the other 49 per cent –as in the old joke that ‘democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding who shall eat whom for dinner’. In representative democracies, much smaller proportions of the electorate can have undue influence.
  • Because of the problem of minorities being exploited – or minorities exploiting majorities – many Public Choice theorists argue that political decision-making needs to be constrained by constitutional rules.

In my first two years in Parliament, I have seen most of the issues described in action. Armies of lobbyists are employed by rent-seeking interest groups. Chairmen steer agendas to achieve desired results, particularly in the case of the executive’s control of Parliamentary business. Voting does not reveal how voters truly feel about the issues at stake. There’s gaming, free-riding, logrolling (supporting each other’s proposals), rational ignorance and, notably, time-shifting: enjoying benefits today to be paid for by future taxpayers. Officials seek to increase their budgets and power while politicians struggle to restrain them.

Politicians and officials are disruptive big players subject to all these problems, not because of their personalities or party, but because of the way the world works. Scholars including Huerta de Soto and Kirzner provide the additional insight that life is a dynamic process of information discovery: so, much as politicians and officials may insist on “evidence-based policy”, the information they need to intervene successfully in our lives simply is not available. Often, as I revealed recently when the Transport Committee took evidence from the Office of Rail Regulation (see especially Q122-123), officials positively prevent the mechanisms of life in society from working, then wonder why they suffer apparently intractable problems.

The conclusion which comes from a robust understanding of society and of government as an institution full of real people with all their own failings is simple. Politicians and officials should be restrained from interfering in the lives of the people. Government should stick to those few things it is good at and politicians should be much more humble and realistic about what they can achieve.

I thoroughly recommend Eamonn’s excellent primer, which is available free to download or to buy here.

What If the National Debt Were Your Debt? – YouTube

Via Learn Liberty, a video which tries to make the US fiscal position understandable: What If the National Debt Were Your Debt?

Government debt is not the same as household debt of course. Households can’t debase everyone’s money in an attempt to avoid bankruptcy.

Expect the Bank of England to be surprised by inflation in the next couple of months

The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report forecasts falling inflation:

However, my preferred measure of the money supply, MA from Kaleidic Economics, is now rising at 6% year on year, in contrast to the Bank’s measures of broad money:

There are other factors at work too but there’s a certain inevitability about headlines like “Bank surprised by shock inflation data” before the summer is out.

The fuel pantomime: why put up with our vulnerability to the words of ministers?

Charles Moore is suggesting that this fuel pantomime may be a deliberate strategy:

But now that I have heard the Conservatives’ private explanation, which is being handed down to constituency associations by MPs, I begin to feel angry.

The private message is as follows. “This is our Thatcher moment. In order to defeat the coming miners’ strike, she stockpiled coal. When the strike came, she weathered it, and the Labour Party, tarred by the strike, was humiliated. In order to defeat the coming fuel drivers’ strike, we want supplies of petrol stockpiled. Then, if the strike comes, we will weather it, and Labour, in hock to the Unite union, will be blamed.”

Perhaps I have missed a memo, but I think not (and I did check). Putting the public to all this inconvenience would obviously not be a wise strategy. And who would want widespread stockpiling of petrol at home?  Who would think that enough could be stockpiled safely to be useful? Given the choice between conspiracy or cock up, error always seems more likely.

Whatever the reason why remarks were made by Government ministers which sent people to the pumps, I feel sure that society should not be so vulnerable to the words of a few people in Westminster. After the drama of the past few days, a better question than why ministers created this pantomime would be why we put up with them having the power to do so, whether by error or deliberate act. Society should not be so vulnerable to its rulers.