On double-dip recession, Tullett Prebon rightly ask “What’s the big idea?”

The latest strategy note from Tullet Prebon asks, “What’s the big idea?” with the subtitle “the imperative need for a new ideology”, writing:

Effective government is not simply a matter of management. Even in good times, competence is barely enough. In bad times, ideological clarity is imperative, and the lack of a clear, ideas-based strategy is the black hole at the heart of the coalition administration.

This chart is particularly informative:

Click for report

They comment, “The centre-right is in desperate need of a new ideology, and this, we believe, needs to be based on a commitment to the wholesale reform of capitalism.”

Indeed and that reform must be based on the understanding that it is money itself which has failed, creating a financial crisis, an intractable bust, an unjust distribution of wealth and other grave problems which undermine the basis of our society. It is because money has failed that further monetary activism is not working to produce a recovery. In so far as a resumption of an accelerating increase in the money supply would produce an economic boom, it would be one which risked an inflationary destruction of the currency.

I’m an enemy of Keynes’ flawed ideas, but he was no fool. His preface to the General Theory set out how his main purpose was to cause economists to question the basic assumptions of economic orthodoxy. He finished his book by asking whether the fulfillment of his ideas was “a visionary hope”, famously writing,

The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.

Today, he is that defunct economist. By enabling an economic orthodoxy which understates the importance of time, his ideas (amongst others) legitimise a neglect of the structure of capital and the origin of interest rates which together enable the monetary activism which brought us to this point, which is not working now and which threatens to make the crisis worse later.

It is again time for economists to question the basic assumptions of their orthodoxy.

In the vision for the Cobden Centre, I wrote,

Our vision is of a peaceful, open and free society based on a stable, sustainable economy in which everyone has the opportunity to participate in constantly growing real prosperity.

Based on sound scholarship, we argue that such a society must be built on honest money.

Honest money means an end to credit expansion and false booms followed by financial crises with appalling human cost. It means an end to inflation of the money supply and hence prices. Honest money is the key to social progress in the 21st century.

Tullet Prebon are right that a new big idea is required. The Big Society is a good one, and I support it, but it is empty without monetary reform, for money is the basis of cooperation in society. All the while money remains broken, there will be no sustainable and just recovery. For those who want to question the basis of contemporary economic orthodoxy, I recommend starting with the primers here.

A Question Time panel at the John Hampden Grammar School

On Friday March 16 2012, a Question Time panel was hosted by Steven Sackur at the John Hampden Grammar School with the Bishop of Buckingham, Nigel Farage, Lord Alf Dubbs, the Independent’s Mary Dejevsky and me. Bucks New University students filmed the event and the video is now available here:

My answers are at these times (I was not asked to reply on HS2 or military intervention):

  • The EU – 7:25
  • University tuition fees – 11:30
  • Gay marriage – (The Bishop of Bucks declared support at 29:00) 33:00

Philipp Bagus explains how to overcome obstacles to Euro exit

Via Is there no escape from the euro?

Intellectual honesty requires us to admit that there are important costs to exiting the euro, such as legal problems or the disentangling of the ECB. However, these costs can be mitigated by reforms or clever handling. Some of the alleged costs are actually benefits from the point of liberty, such as political costs or liberating capital flows. Indeed, other costs may be seen as an opportunity, such as a banking crisis that is used to reform the financial system and finally put it on a sound basis. In any case, these costs have to be compared with the enormous benefits of exiting the system, consisting in the possible implosion of the Eurosystem. Exiting the euro implies ending being part of an inflationary, self-destructing monetary system with growing welfare states, falling competitiveness, bailouts, subsidies, transfers, moral hazard, conflicts between nations, centralization, and in general a loss of liberty.

It’s a perspective you don’t see everywhere.

Democratic self-determination is a basic right: both Kashmir and the UK should have referenda on who governs them

After Easter, I spent a week in Pakistan and Kashmir, visiting Islamabad, Thara, Sava, Dadyal, Mirpur and Skardu, which is in the northern Gilgit-Baltistan province. During a live news conference with Kashmir’s Prime Minister, I was asked why I take the time to support the cause of democratic self-determination for Kashmir. There are three reasons.

First, the essence of representative democracy is representation. I joined the Party in the Autumn of 2007 when, thanks to the transformation of the EU Constitution into the Lisbon Treaty, I thought our political system had reached a new low. Perhaps it had, but the expenses scandal took it lower. I was and remain determined to do things differently.

I promised my well over 8,500 Kashmiri constituents that I would represent them on the issue of Kashmir. In securing a debate in Parliament and following up with a visit to consider our next steps, that is what I have done.

Second, we have common cause. One of newest ideas in human history is that political power has no legitimacy apart from that bestowed at the ballot box. Democracy is certainly imperfect, and it may be the worst system apart from all the rest, but it is has the prime purpose of enabling the public to dismiss their rulers without recourse to violence, which is bound to interrupt the smooth development of civilisation and prosperity.

In the long and bloody history of Kashmir, we see why the plebiscite required under UN resolutions is so essential, whatever difficulties there may be. The people of Kashmir should certainly have a referendum to determine their future and so should the people of the UK.

Finally, I support democratic self-determination because it is right. As Pakistan’s Foreign Minister confirmed, the conflict over Kashmir is a substantial impediment to prosperity across the entire region of South Asia. Of course there is much else that must be changed, but British people descended from anywhere on the sub-continent deserve British representation on what is substantially a legacy of the British Empire. Of course India and Pakistan are independent nations, but there are thousands of British people who demand, and are entitled to, representation on this issue, an issue which harms their extended families and naturally weighs heavily on their minds.

I was delighted to learn that India and Pakistan are working towards making progress. I hope the British Government will provide, with due humility, all the support it can.

You can watch highlights of the trip below.

We went on to Gilgit-Baltistan, which was thoroughly beautiful:

The importance of 23:59

Today’s front page of The Times asks, “Does May know what day it is?” I should think so but perhaps the Department needs to learn something from the armed forces.

I recall being trained never to specify “midnight” on a day because whether one means the beginning or end of the day is ambiguous. We would write “23:59″ or “00:01″ to be clear.

Presumably the lesson was learned at considerable cost. I’d like to believe everyone in the Civil Service is aware of it.

This is a crisis of state intervention

In the past few posts, I reproduced the economist Ludwig von Mises’ 1949 explanation of “the crisis of interventionism”, which insisted that the “third way” is a system of economic organisation which cannot last. We must choose between either state socialism or a free society. State socialism would be chaos but “Nothing suggests the belief that progress toward more satisfactory conditions is inevitable or a relapse into very unsatisfactory conditions impossible.”

Many seem to believe we are in a crisis of capitalism but, as I have said in the Commons, if this is capitalism, I am not a capitalist. Leaving aside our chronically inflationary system of money and all the damage it has done to society and the economy, any reasonable person looking at the growth of state spending ought to admit that ours is a fundamentally interventionist economy:

GDP at Factor Cost 1900- 2008 with implied Budget forecasts for 2009 and 2010

Click for source

Those of us born after about 1970 have lived exclusively in an age of big government, whoever has been in power: government usually so big it has lived beyond its means. According to charts provided by the same author, total taxation hasn’t been genuinely low since the Second World War:

GDP at factor cost 1900-2008 with implied Budget forecasts for 2009 and 2010

Click for source

Commenting on their report Soviet Britain, The Times pointed out that “The state now looms far larger in many parts of Britain than it did in former Soviet satellite states such as Hungary and Slovakia as they emerged from communism in the 1990s, when state spending accounted for about 60% of their economies.”

So, even before beginning to consider the role of the various regulators of major sections of our economy — such as finance, water, energy, transport, media etc — it is obvious that we are not at the end of a century of laissez-faire capitalism. To suggest that this is a crisis of capitalism looks like either an act of wilful misunderstanding or one of denial. Perhaps it is an act of redefinition of the word “capitalism”. In Living with Leviathan, Smith wrote:

It is certainly not being suggested that New Labour economic policy is consciously modelled on pre-war fascist precedents but rather that a combination of the Marxist- inspired New Left ideas of the former student radicals of the 1960s and 1970s, who now compose so much of the Labour Party establishment, when combined with an intense nanny-style authoritarianism, and the practical need to get elected, produced a synthesis that ended up with an economic approach that was functionally hard to distinguish from that of fascism.

And that is the economic system that we have today.

We are in a crisis which has arisen out of the systematic intervention of authority in the cooperation of individuals, families and firms. Quite apart from any other factor, the Bank of England and the world’s other central banks held interest rates too low for too long, creating an illusion of prosperity based on the increasing extension of bank credit. It was not only an illusion which could not last, it was also one which funded the lavish spending of the previous government.

Even now, the governments of the western world are attempting to mitigate the bitterly painful consequences of the errors of the past. As we go through the extremely difficult days ahead, I hope people will increasingly realise that the enemy which delivered us into this mess was the state. If we really care about the poor, the vulnerable and those without hope in our society, we will respond to this crisis by choosing liberty.

The Crisis of Interventionism, part 3: The End of Interventionism

Blogging will be light for a few days for reasons which will become apparent when I return to it. In the meantime, I wanted to offer some prescient writing from Mises’ 1949 masterpiece, Human Action on the crisis of well-intentioned economic intervention.

Via Human Action chapter XXXVI: The End of Interventionism, including the “third way”:

The interventionist interlude must come to an end because interventionism cannot lead to a permanent system of social organization. The reasons are threefold.

First: Restrictive measures always restrict output and the amount of goods available for consumption. Whatever arguments may be advanced in favor of definite restrictions and prohibitions, such measures in themselves can never constitute a system of social production.

Second: All varieties of interference with the market phenomena not only fail to achieve the ends aimed at by their authors and supporters, but bring about a state of affairs which–from the point of view of their authors’ and advocates’ valuations–is less desirable than the previous state of affairs which they were designed to alter. If one wants to correct their manifest unsuitableness and preposterousness by supplementing the first acts of intervention with more and more of such acts, one must go farther and farther until the market economy has been entirely destroyed and socialism has been substituted for it.

Third: Interventionism aims at confiscating the “surplus” of one part of the population and at giving it to the other part. Once this surplus is exhausted by total confiscation, a further continuation of this policy is impossible.

Marching ever further along the path of interventionism, all those countries that have not adopted full socialism of the Russian pattern are more and more approaching what is called a planned economy, i.e., socialism of the German or Hindenburg pattern. In regard to economic policies, there is nowadays little difference among the various nations and, within each nation, among the various political parties and pressure groups. The historical party names have lost their significance. There are, as far as economic policy is concerned, practically only two factions left: the advocates of the Lenin method of all-round nationalization and the interventionists. The advocates of the free market economy have little influence upon the course of events. What economic freedom still exists is the outcome of the failure of the measures resorted to by the governments, rather than of an intentional policy.

It is difficult to find out how many of the supporters of interventionism are conscious of the fact that the policies they recommend directly lead toward socialism, and how many hold fast to the illusion that what they are aiming at is a middle-of-the-road system that can last as a permanent system-a “third solution” of the problem of society’s economic organization. At any rate, it is certain that all interventionists believe that the government, and the government alone, is called upon to decide in every single case whether one has to let things go as the market determines them or whether an act of intervention is needed. This means that they are prepared to tolerate the supremacy of the consumers only as far as it brings about a result of which they themselves approve. As soon as something happens in the economy that any of the various bureaucratic institutions does not like or that arouses the anger of a pressure group, people clamor for new interventions, controls, and restrictions. But for the inefficiency of the law-givers and the laxity, carelessness, and corruption of many of the functionaries, the last vestiges of the market economy would have long since disappeared.

The unsurpassed efficiency of capitalism never before manifested itself in a more beneficial way than in this age of heinous anticapitalism. While governments, political parties, and labor unions are sabotaging all business operations, the spirit of enterprise still succeeds in increasing the quantity and improving the quality of products and in rendering them more easily accessible to the consumers. In the countries that have not yet entirely abandoned the capitalistic system the common man enjoys today a standard of living for which the princes and nabobs of ages gone by would have envied him. A short time ago the demagogues blamed capitalism for the poverty of the masses. Today they rather blame capitalism for the “affluence” that it bestows upon the common man.

It has been shown that the managerial system, i.e., the assignment of ancillary tasks in the conduct of business to responsible helpers to whom a certain amount of discretion can be granted, is possible only within the frame of the profit system. What characterizes the manager as such and imparts to him a condition different from that of the mere technician is that, within the sphere of his assignment, he himself determines the methods by which his actions should conform to the profit principle. In a socialist system in which there is neither economic calculation nor capital accounting nor profit computation, there is no room left for managerial activities either. But as long as a socialist commonwealth is still in a position to calculate on the ground of prices determined on foreign markets, it can also utilize a quasi-managerial hierarchy to some extent.

It is a poor makeshift to call any age an age of transition. In the living world there is always change. Every age is an age of transition. We may distinguish between social systems that can last and such as are inevitable transitory because they are self-destructive. It has already been pointed out in what sense interventionism liquidates itself and must lead to socialism of the German pattern. Some European countries have already reached this phase, and nobody knows whether or not the United States will follow suit. But as long as the United States clings to the market economy and does not adopt the system of full government control of business, the socialist economies of Western Europe will still be in a position to calculate. Their conduct of business still lacks the most characteristic feature of socialist conduct; it is still based on economic calculation. It is therefore in every respect very different from what it would become if all the world were to turn toward socialism.

It is often said that one half of the world cannot remain committed to the market economy when the other half is socialist, and vice versa. However, there is no reason to assume that such a partition of the earth and the coexistence of the two systems is impossible. If this is really the case, then the present economic system of the countries that have discarded capitalism may go on for an indefinite period of time. Its operation may result in social disintegration, chaos, and misery for the peoples. But neither a low standard of living nor progressive impoverishment automatically liquidates an economic system. It gives way to a more efficient system only if people themselves are intelligent enough to comprehend the advantages such a change might bring them. Or it may be destroyed by foreign invaders provided with better military equipment by the greater efficiency of their own economic system.

Optimists hope that at least those nations which have in the past developed the capitalist market economy and its civilization will cling to this system in the future too. There are certainly as many signs to confirm as to disprove such an expectation. It is vain to speculate about the outcome of the great ideological conflict between the principles of private ownership and public ownership, of individualism and totalitarianism, of freedom and authoritarian regimentation. All that we can know beforehand about the result of this struggle can be condensed in the following three statements:

1. We have no knowledge whatever about the existence and operation of agencies which would bestow final victory in this clash on those ideologies whose application will secure the preservation and further intensification of societal bonds and the improvement of mankind’s material well-being. Nothing suggests the belief that progress toward more satisfactory conditions is inevitable or a relapse into very unsatisfactory conditions impossible.

2. Men must choose between the market economy and socialism. They cannot evade deciding between these alternatives by adopting a “middle-of-the-road” position, whatever name they may give to it.

3. In abolishing economic calculation the general adoption of socialism would result in complete chaos and the disintegration of social cooperation under the division of labor.

Tomorrow, some evidence that the current crisis is a crisis of interventionism.

The Crisis of Interventionism, part 2: The Exhaustion of the Reserve Fund

Blogging will be light for a few days for reasons which will become apparent when I return to it. In the meantime, I wanted to offer some prescient writing from Mises’ 1949 masterpiece, Human Action on the crisis of well-intentioned economic intervention.

Via Human Action chapter XXXVI: The Exhaustion of the Reserve Fund:

The idea underlying all interventionist policies is that the higher income and wealth of the more affluent part of the population is a fund which can be freely used for the improvement of the conditions of the less prosperous. The essence of the interventionist policy is to take from one group to give to another. It is confiscation and distribution. Every measure is ultimately justified by declaring that it is fair to curb the rich for the benefit of the poor.

In the field of public finance progressive taxation of incomes and estates is the most characteristic manifestation of this doctrine. Tax the rich and spend the revenue for the improvement of the condition of the poor, is the principle of contemporary budgets. In the field of industrial relations shortening the hours of work, raising wages, and a thousand other measures are recommended under the assumption that they favor the employee and burden the employer. Every issue of government and community affairs is dealt with exclusively from the point of view of this principle.

An illustrative example is provided by the methods applied in the operation of nationalized and municipalized enterprises. These enterprises very often result in financial failure; their accounts regularly show losses burdening the state or the city treasury. It is of no use to investigate whether the deficits are due to the notorious inefficiency of the public conduct of business enterprises or, at least partly, to the inadequacy of the prices at which the commodities or services are sold to the customers. What matters is the fact that the taxpayers must cover these deficits. The interventionists fully approve of this arrangement. They passionately reject the two other possible solutions: selling the enterprises to private entrepreneurs or raising the prices charged to the customers to such a height that no further deficit remains. The first of these proposals is in their eyes manifestly reactionary because they believe that the inevitable trend of history is toward more and more socialization. The second is deemed “antisocial” because it places a heavier load upon the consuming masses. It is fairer to make the taxpayers, i.e., the wealthy citizens, bear the burden. Their ability to pay is greater than that of the average people riding the nationalized railroads and the municipalized subways, trolleys, and busses. To ask that such public utilities should be self-supporting, is, say the interventionists, a relic of the old-fashioned ideas of orthodox finance. One might as well aim at making the roads and the public schools self-supporting.

It is not necessary to argue with the advocates of this deficit policy. It is obvious that recourse to this ability-to-pay principle depends on the existence of such incomes and fortunes as can still be taxed away. It can no longer be resorted to once these extra funds have been exhausted by taxes and other interventionist measures.

This is precisely the present state of affairs in most of the European countries. The United States has not yet gone so far; but if the actual trend of its economic policies is not radically altered very soon, it will be in the same condition in a few years.

For the sake of argument we may disregard all the other consequences which the full triumph of the ability-to-pay principle must bring about and concentrate upon its financial aspects.

The interventionist in advocating additional public expenditure is not aware of the fact that the funds available are limited. He does not realize that increasing expenditure in one department enjoins restricting it in other departments. In his opinion there is plenty of money available. The income and wealth of the rich can be freely tapped. In recommending a greater allowance for the schools he simply stresses the point that it would be a good thing to spend more for education. He does not venture to prove that to raise the budgetary allowance for schools is more expedient than to raise that of another department, e.g., that of health. It never occurs to him that grave arguments could be advanced in favor of restricting public spending and lowering the burden of taxation. The champions of cuts in the budget are in his eyes merely the defenders of the manifestly unfair class interests of the rich.

With the present height of income and inheritance tax rates, this reserve fund out of which the interventionists seek to comer all public expenditure is rapidly shrinking. It has practically disappeared altogether in most European countries. In the United States the recent advances in tax rates produced only negligible revenue results beyond what would be produced by a progression which stopped at much lower rates. High surtax rates for the rich are very popular with interventionist dilettantes and demagogues, but they secure only modest additions to the revenue. From day to day it becomes more obvious that large-scale additions to the amount of public expenditure cannot be financed by “soaking the rich,” but that the burden must be carried by the masses. The traditional tax policy of the age of interventionism, its glorified devices of progressive taxation and lavish spending have been carried to a point at which their absurdity can no longer be concealed. The notorious principle that, whereas private expenditures depend on the size of income available, public revenues must be regulated according to expenditures, refutes itself. Henceforth, governments will have to realize that one dollar cannot be spent twice, and that the various items of government expenditure are in conflict with one another. Every penny of additional government spending will have to be collected from precisely those people who hitherto have been intent upon shifting the main burden to other groups. Those anxious to get subsidies will themselves have to foot the bill. The deficits of publicly owned and operated enterprises will be charged to the bulk of the population.

The situation in the employer-employee nexus will be analogous. The popular doctrine contends that wage earners are reaping “social gains” at the expense of the unearned income of the exploiting classes. The strikers, it is said, do not strike against the consumers but against “management.” There is no reason to raise the prices of products when labor costs are increased; the difference must be borne by employers. But when more and more of the share of the entrepreneurs and capitalists is absorbed by taxes, higher wage rates, and other “social gains” of employees, and by price ceilings, nothing remains for such a buffer function. Then it becomes evident that every wage raise, with its whole momentum, must affect the prices of the products and that the social gains of each group fully correspond to the social losses of the other groups. Every strike becomes, even in the short run and not only in the long run, a strike against the rest of the people.

An essential point in the social philosophy of interventionism is the existence of an inexhaustible fund which can be squeezed forever. The whole system of interventionism collapses when this fountain is drained off: The Santa Claus principle liquidates itself

Tomorrow, The End of Interventionism.

The Crisis of Interventionism, part 1: The Harvest of Interventionism

Blogging will be light for a few days for reasons which will become apparent when I return to it. In the meantime, I wanted to offer some prescient writing from Mises’ 1949 masterpiece, Human Action on the crisis of well-intentioned economic intervention.

Via Human Action chapter XXXVI: The Harvest of Interventionism:

The interventionist policies as practiced for many decades by all governments of the capitalistic West have brought about all those effects which the economists predicted. There are wars and civil wars, ruthless oppression of the masses by clusters of self-appointed dictators, economic depressions, mass unemployment, capital consumption, famines.

However, it is not these catastrophic events which have led to the crisis of interventionism. The interventionist doctrinaires and their followers explain all these undesired consequences as the unavoidable features of capitalism. As they see it, it is precisely these disasters that clearly demonstrate the necessity of intensifying interventionism. The failures of the interventionist policies do not in the least impair the popularity of the implied doctrine. They are so interpreted as to strengthen, not to lessen, the prestige of these teachings. As a vicious economic theory cannot be simply refuted by historical experience, the interventionist propagandists have been able to go on in spite of all the havoc they have spread.

Yet the age of interventionism is reaching its end. Interventionism has exhausted all its potentialities and must disappear.

Tomorrow, The Exhaustion of the Reserve Fund.

A vision for more accountable public services

The Government have released their Open Public Services 2012 document which focuses on decentralising power to ensure that public services are accountable to the people that use them rather than to centralised bureaucracies.

Despite global economic woes, public demand for high-quality services has remained intense. This does not mean that more money should be spent in a hapless attempt to improve services; rather, the only feasible way of making gains in the quality of services is to introduce competition, choice and accountability.

From here on in, all Government departments will start to report on progress against this document and the Government as a whole will report annually to Parliament on progress. To promote this choice, public services will be open to independent reviews to look at barriers to choice and right to chose campaigns will be actioned.

In addition, the Government is launching a call to evidence to help them understand if there is value in enshrining in legislation of a right to choice. An example of what draft clause might look like can be seen here. They will also foster the establishment of Choice Champions who will promote choice in public services and help support citizens in making informed choices.

If a public service fails to meet a specified standard then the Government will provide a clear and simple mechanism that people can follow. Local complaints procedures will continue to be the first port of call, but if a complaint about choice cannot be resolved locally then the Government is working with the ombudsmen to: improve the awareness and understanding of their role; to use their name and shame power more effectives; and to communicate unresolved issues to the relevant elected body.

Furthermore, the Government is looking at ways of levelling the playing field so that all qualified providers in appropriate public services can compete on fair terms. They will also ensure that key data about public services is in the public domain in a comparable and accessible form.

In healthcare specifically, the Government believes in the NHS free at the point of use and funded from general taxation, based on need, not ability to pay. At the same time, the NHS is in need of reform. The number of people aged over 85 will double in the next 20 years and the cost of medicine is rising. To protect the NHS for the future, it must become more efficient.

Competition will be encouraged. It has existed in the NHS for a long time. The last Government recognised that competition can help ensure that money is spent efficiently and that patients get the very best treatment. The Government has ensured that competition is always in the patient’s interest. The new Health and Social Care Act ensures that cherry-picking of the most lucrative treatment by private providers is prohibited and competition will be on quality not price, for better or worse.

Turning to mutualisation of the public sector, the Government is giving public sector staff new Rights to Provide which will empower employees to form mutuals to bid or request to take over the services they deliver. This will allow millions of public sector staff to become their own boss – freeing up untapped entrepreneurial and innovative drive. The Government is supporting some of the most promising and innovative mutuals to reach the point of investment readiness, through the Mutual Support Programme.

There are many more areas in which the Government is helping to promote further competition, choice and accountability. I recommend looking through the plans in greater detail here.