The Credit Crunch Explained

Money SupplyAn explanation of the financial crisis for everyone:

Linda is the proprietor of a bar in Cork. In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers – most of whom are unemployed alcoholics – to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around and as a result increasing numbers of customers (still mostly unemployed alcoholics) flood into Linda’s bar. Taking advantage of her customers’ freedom from immediate payment constraints, Linda increases her prices for wine and beer, the most popular drinks. Her sales volumes and profits increase massively.

… read on: You’re having a laugh ….. seriously?: The Credit Crunch Explained.

Three themes appear often in explanations of the crisis:

  1. That bankers were greedy and irresponsible; that they made bad business decisions and sold bad products.
  2. That regulation was insufficient or inadequate.
  3. That too much money was loaned.

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Roots of the Crisis | FreedomWorks

The roots of the crisis from a United States perspective:

To understand today’s financial crisis, you must understand the long history of government interference and subsidies for housing and housing debt.

Since the New Deal, the federal government has passed law after law attempting to shape U.S. housing markets. The U.S. today compels banks to lend to risky borrowers, skews the cost of housing debt and benefit of housing-related capital gains through the tax code, and operates several enormous government lending programs and taxpayer-backed corporations.

1933 – President Franklin Delano Roosevelt issues an Executive Order banning the private ownership of gold coins and bullion under penalty of imprisonment. The government is released from redeeming dollars for gold which makes inflating the money supply much easier.

 

 

via Roots of the Crisis | FreedomWorks.

Banks, economic interventionism and the cause of the credit crisis

(This post is a precis of Huerta de Soto’s Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles pp650-653, presenting an argument which was famously expounded by von Mises in Socialism.

Among the young idealists who were attracted to socialism after the Great War, who came through these arguments expressed in full to understand that they “had been looking for improvement in the wrong direction”, was F A Hayek, Author of The Road to Serfdom, Nobel Prize winner and proponent of the denationalization of money.)


To attempt to coordinate society through coercion is an intellectual error: it is impossible for an institution to obtain the information needed to establish social coordination by decree. There are four reasons:

  • It is impossible to obtain, store and process the vast amount of practical information in the minds of different people.
  • Most of the necessary information is subjective, practical, tacit and non-verbal: it cannot be transmitted.
  • Information which people have not yet discovered or created and which arises from the market process cannot be transmitted.
  • Coercion — that is, regulation — prevents the discovery or creation of the necessary information.

These are the arguments developed at length by von Mises in Socialism. Von Mises demonstrates the impossibility of socialism and of effective state intervention in the economy. His thesis explains theoretically why the socialist economies of the Eastern Bloc failed. It also explains the growth of the tensions, maladjustments and inefficiencies in western economies which have led to our present crisis.

Crisis is the inevitable outcome of the application of coercion and privilege by government, which systematically worsens social maladjustments, hinders the creativity of entrepreneurs, distorts economic information, encourages irresponsibility, corrupts individuals and encourages the underground economy.
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George Osborne: A different vision for our economy

George Osborne has stressed that Britain needs to move from an economy built on debt to one “powered by savings and real returns on effort”.

“With reform we can not only live within our means, we can start to tackle Britain’s long standing social problems of welfare dependency, educational under-achievement, crime and persistent poverty. And we can begin to bring the national debt under control.”

via The Conservative Party | News | News | A different vision for our economy . Full text of the speech here.

Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles

Jesus Huerta De Soto’s book, “Money, Bank Credit and Economic Cycles” arrived today, all 875 pages of it. It is, apparently:

by far the most thorough treatment in print of Austrian ideas on banking and the business cycle 

It looks insightful already (from the preface to the second, 2001, edition):

While governments and central banks have reacted to the terrorist attack on New York’s World Trade Center by manipulating interest rates, reducing them to historically low levels … the massive expansion of fiduciary media injected into the system will not only prolong and hinder the necessary streamlining of the real productive structure, but may also lead to dangerous stagflation.

And so here we go. More to follow as I work towards his proposals for reform.

FT.com / UK – UK tax-take to reveal depth of crisis

On the tax-take and on the risk to the nation’s finances, via FT.com / UK – UK tax-take to reveal depth of crisis:

A dramatic deterioration in the public finances is expected to be revealed on Thursday morning as official figures show extremely weak tax revenues in the crucial month of January and lay bare the cost of the government’s capital injections into Britain’s banks.

The Treasury is bracing for investor disappointment given expectations for a cash surplus of £16bn for January, only £9bn worse than the bumper receipts in the same month last year.

But the government injected £17bn of capital into the Lloyds Banking Group alone last month, making those market predictions far too optimistic.

And via John Redwood MP | Honey, I’ve lost he UK’ s tax revenue:

Understand that the UK Parliament now has to supervise a large bank with a medium sized government attached. If they nationalise LLoyds as well as RBS the banks balance sheets will be more than twice the national income and more than five times the annual tax revenue. That’s taking a crazy risk.

I’m fed up with slumpflation, and the banking and monetary madness which has brought it on us. Please don’t nationalise another bank. Please start to sort out the bad banks, and please run a monetary policy that finds the right balance between too much and too little.

The monetary authorities have been in the shower, tugging the control from cold to hot to cold to hot again. Set it for comfortable and stop fiddling with it. Let’s hope they haven’t broken it with their violent moves.

Britain’s bankers plumb new depths – Times Online

113px-gold_currency_symbolssvgVia Britain’s bankers plumb new depths – Times Online :

Jon Moulton, the private equity chief, warned a City lunch this week that he feared serious civil unrest. There was, he said, a 25 per cent chance of one of the 15 member countries of the eurozone pulling out of the currency club. That, he said, would be a catastrophic shock leading to a “far greater financial crisis” than the current one.

But thinking is established in this area: we are not without explanations and options. See for example Denationalisation of Money — The Argument Refined, by F A Hayek.

From the cover page:

Diseases desperate grown,
By desperate appliances are reli’ved,
Or not at all.
– William Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act iv, Scene iii

Hayek makes practical proposals for free trade in money and explains:

The purpose of this scheme is to impose upon existing monetary and financial agencies a very much needed discipline by making it impossible for any of them, or for any length of time, to issue a kind of money substantially less reliable and useful than the money of any other.

He considered the proposal “more practicable than utopian European currency” which

would ultimately only have the effect of more deeply entrenching the source and root of all monetary evil, the government monopoly of the issue and control of money.

And his remarks on monetary policy and a common European currency now look prescient indeed. Consider:

On the effects of the adoption of the proposal all I will add at this point is that it is of course intended to prevent national monetary and financial authorities from doing many things politically impossible to avoid so long as they have the power to do them. These are without exception harmful and against the long-run interest of the country doing them but politically inevitable as a temporary escape from acute difficulties. They include measures by which governments can most easily and quickly remove the causes of discontent of particular groups or sections but bound in the long run to disorganise and ultimately to destroy the market order.

Reason has shown and history has proven that the free market is the only successful system for cooperation in a society based on the division of labour. We must find the courage to fix what intervention has broken.

Lloyds Banking Group rocked by shock losses in HBOS – Times Online

Taxpayers could have to spend billions bailing out the banks again after massive and unexpected losses were disclosed by Britain’s new superbank.

Shares in Lloyds Banking Group fell 32 per cent to 61.4p yesterday after it reported losses of £10 billion in HBOS, making it worth far less than thought when it was taken over in November.

The news, a huge embarrassment for Gordon Brown, who helped to broker the deal, triggered speculation that the bank will have to come back to the Government for more capital.

via Lloyds Banking Group rocked by shock losses in HBOS – Times Online .

Why the Downturn? – T E Woods, Jr

It’s not exactly clear how the Federal Reserve’s policy of pushing interest rates well below where the free market would have set them, thereby inflating the biggest asset bubble in the history of the world, could be the fault of the free market, or attributable to “laissez faire.” But since hardly anyone discusses the Fed, no one has to answer this inconvenient question. The Fed’s very existence is a violation of laissez faire. Yet the destructive effects of what it does are then blamed on the market. This charade has gone on long enough.

via Why the Downturn? – Thomas E. Woods, Jr. – Mises Institute .

Some Banks Want to Return Government Money – NYTimes.com

Even before the [US] government announced its latest efforts to fix the troubled banking industry on Tuesday, executives at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley said they wanted to repay the money quickly. Both banks received $10 billion under the first rescue plan last fall.

Paying back all those funds would be difficult in this tough economic environment. But banking executives worry that the government may intrude further into their businesses as long as they are beholden to Washington.

“We just think that operating our business without the government capital would be an easier thing to do,” said David A. Viniar, the chief financial officer of Goldman. “We’d be under less scrutiny, and under less pressure. Not that we’d be out of the public eye; we’re still going to be in the public eye.”

via Some Banks Want to Return Government Money – NYTimes.com.