Gordon Kerr predicts the failure of the Greek bailout

My Cobden Centre and Cobden Partners colleague Gordon Kerr appeared this morning on Bloomberg to explain why the Greek bailout will fail:

As I have said in debate, in the context of using the IMF to facilitate bailouts:

…If this is not the time of all times to question the fundamental basis of our financial system, I do not know when we ever shall. …

To conclude, we are in danger of simply kicking a can down the road and, as my hon. Friend the Member for Clacton said, ladling water into the boat. We are looking at further credit expansion, further monetisation of debts and further socialisation of risk. Throughout the western world, we are in danger of appearing as King Canute, trying to use politics to hold back the realities of social co-operation, which we usually describe as economics. The IMF is an institutional legacy from a monetary system that failed 40 years ago, and the successor to which is even now failing as well.

We live in a time of immense forces at work in the world: huge bailouts of nation states, “quantitative easing” and extensive intervention in credit markets. Where it leads remains to be seen but I believe we will need rather more imaginative thought about the financial system before this episode in our history is over.

A reading list for rethinking economics is here and a primer is here.

Detlev Schlichter argues we’ll be rethinking the role of the state as the crisis deepens

In this video, Detlev Schlichter talks to Jan Skoyles of the Real Asset Company about the crisis, the benefits of cooperation and money as a key causal factor. He argues we will need to fundamentally reconsider the role of the state, as the crisis continues to develop.

Economics in One Lesson: VII – The Curse of Machinery

Every week over 26 weeks, I’ll be publishing a précis of a chapter of Henry Hazlitt’s brilliant 1946 book, Economics in One Lesson, prepared by Michael Dowsett during his internship. The index page is here.

This week, The Curse of Machinery, which destroys the luddite fallacy that mechanisation makes us all poorer. For example, from the original:

Among the most viable of all economic delusions is the belief that machines on net balance create unemployment. Destroyed a thousand times, it has risen a thousand times out of its own ashes as hardy and vigorous as ever. Whenever there is long-continued mass unemployment, machines get the blame anew. This fallacy is still the basis of many labor union practices. The public tolerates these practices because it either believes at bottom that the unions are right, or is too confused to see just why they are wrong.

The belief that machines cause unemployment, when held with any logical consistency, leads to preposterous conclusions. Not only must we be causing unemployment with every technological improvement we make today, but primitive man must have started causing it with the first efforts he made to save himself from needless toil and sweat.

Buy or download Economics in One Lesson.

New campaign page – injustice in the financial system

Today, I have released a new campaign page introducing my work on injustice in the financial system, including fighting unfair bonuses and the misery created by our systematically inflationary monetary system. You can find it here but, for example:

The UK money supply tripled between 1997 and 2010, widening wealth inequality, raising house prices out of the reach of young people and reorienting the economy towards the City, the South East and housing. Arguably, such an inflation will have destroyed real capital too. Sadly, this chronic inflation has been going on for 40 years since the Bretton Woods monetary system broke down.

The bust is now producing unemployment and hopelessness. The measures taken by the central banks and the Government, including ultra-low interest rates, quantitative easing and soon “credit easing” are creating further problems including increased disincentives to saving, atrocious terms on annuities for those about to retire and further distortions to the structure of the economy. And all the while the Bank of England’s QE programme is propping up bond prices to keep long term interest rates low, we risk a bursting of that bond market bubble and a further economic shock.

Presentation on the financial crisis

This evening, I made the following presentation on the Government’s financial position and intentions and on the genesis of this crisis. The PDF is here: How to create a crisis.

The Real Asset Company interviews Detlev Schlichter on the Austrian School and the financial crisis

Following my recent interview with The Real Asset Company, I am delighted that they have published this three-part interview with my Cobden Centre colleague, Detlev Schlichter. Here’s the first part:

For ten possible solutions to the problems inherent in our present financial system, see my article here.

HS2 consultants’ services have already cost over £25 million

Last month, I put down a written Parliamentary Question to the Secretary of State for Transport, asking for the remit and cost of the consultants involved in the High Speed Two project. You can read my question and the answer in Hansard here and the text is below.

As you can see, these costs have already run to over £25 million…

Steve Baker:

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport which consultants are being or have been used on the High Speed 2 project; and what the (a) remit and (b) cost to the public purse was of their services in each case.

Justine Greening:

The following table provides information on the consultants used by both HS2 Ltd and the Department for Transport since the inception of HS2 Ltd in 2009 to present. It also gives information on their remit and associated costs.

Company Remit Costs (£)
ALOGIT Technical services 23,184.00
DbyD: Consultation Institute Consultation 23,760.00
Arup Engineering and technical services 7,155,687.35
Atkins Economic services 2,053,812.96
Bircham Dyson Bell Legal services 117,013.52
Bombardier: Min Headway Eval Engineering and technical services 24,000.00
Booz and Company Environmental and economic services 3,550,744.07
Campbell Associates Environmental services 37,473.26
CB Richard Ellis Property services 280,606.59
CCH Wolters Kluwer (UK) LTD Taxation services 504.00
Davis Langdon Cost and risk services 26,569.60
DG Consultant Transport services 17,500.00
Senior Ecologist—ELM Environment Environmental services 10,027.74
Energy Strategy Engineering services 2,160.00
Ernst & Young LLP Financial services 410,888.90
Eversheds LLP Legal services 233,499.89
Hay Group Management Limited HR services 53,987.36
Transport Studies Unit Transport services 48,135.60
Landmark Chambers Legal services 13,800.00
Mott Macdonald Engineering services 4,412,654.42
MSG Engineering services 154,904.91
MVA Economic services 3,276,661.48
Network Rail Infrastructure Ltd Environmental/transport services 7,632.51
Oliver Wyman Consulting Limited Strategy consultancy 107,497.73
Paul Jenkins Associates Ltd Engineering services 22,696.18
Rand Europe Economic services 19,986.80
Reg Harman Consultancy Environmental services 783.30
Rowsell Wright Procurement services 257,976.00
URS/Scott Wilson Economic services 14,652.00
Stoneywood Consultants Organisation/procurement services 59,001.59
Systra Operational services 82,500.00
Temple Ltd Environmental services 3,209,557.60
Thornton Springer Taxation/payroll advice 1,842.00
UKPNS Traction Environmental services 111,430.95

That seems good money for a project that would never attract voluntary support and for those who, far from inheriting the mantle of the Victorian railway pioneers who risked private capital, rely on the taxpayer. It is a metaphor for the transformation of our society from one based on free enterprise to one dependent on state power and the essentially arbitrary decisions of politicians and officials.

The economics of Valentine’s day

Via LearnLiberty, Chris Coyne presents The Economics of Valentine’s Day:

The Doorbell – understanding the implications of state overspending

Via powerlineblog.com:

For another US perspective see LearnLiberty.org and Stop Spending Our Future plus these posts.

Economics in One Lesson: VI – Credit Diverts Production (or why ‘credit easing’ is a dreadful idea)

Every week over 26 weeks, I’ll be publishing a précis of a chapter of Henry Hazlitt’s brilliant 1946 book, Economics in One Lesson, prepared by Michael Dowsett during his internship. The index page is here.

Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other study known to man. This is no accident. The inherent difficulties of the subject would be great enough in any case, but they are multiplied a thousandfold by a factor that is insignificant in, say, physics, mathematics, or medicine—the special pleading of selfish interests. While every group has certain economic interests identical with those of all groups, every group has also, as we shall see, interests antagonistic to those of all other groups. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.

This week, Credit Diverts Production, which seems particularly relevant with the Chancellor’s plans for “credit easing”…

Buy or download Economics in One Lesson.