The crucial fallacy underlying Labour’s rhetoric

Having just read Chuka Umunna’s speech yesterday, I am sorry I was not able to make the debate. There is one particular fallacy underlying Labour’s rhetoric and this particular speech’s bluster: government cannot live forever beyond its means.

Evidence I have presented elsewhere shows that the total tax burden has been around 42% of GDP for 40 years, whoever has been in power. It looks like there is a practical limit to how much of national income the state can seize. If the state spends over about 40% of GDP for a long time, it must borrow and yet never repay. That this reality was hidden through currency debasement – inflation – for a generation is one of the most important causes of the present crisis.

In Economics in One Lesson, Henry Hazlitt wrote:

The precaution of looking for all the consequences of a given policy to everyone may seem elementary. Doesn’t everybody know, in his personal life, that there are all sorts of indulgences delightful at the moment but disastrous in the end? Doesn’t every little boy know that if he eats enough candy he will get sick? Doesn’t the fellow who gets drunk know that he will wake up next morning with a ghastly stomach and a horrible head? Doesn’t the dipsomaniac know that he is ruining his liver and shortening his life? Doesn’t the Don Juan know that he is letting himself in for every sort of risk, from blackmail to disease? Finally, to bring it to the economic though still personal realm, do not the idler and the spendthrift know, even in the midst of their glorious fling, that they are heading for a future of debt and poverty?

Yet when we enter the field of public economics, these elementary truths are ignored. There are men regarded today as brilliant economists, who deprecate saving and recommend squandering on a national scale as the way of economic salvation; and when anyone points to what the consequences of these policies will be in the long run, they reply flippantly, as might the prodigal son of a warning father: “In the long run we are all dead.” And such shallow wisecracks pass as devastating epigrams and the ripest wisdom.

But the tragedy is that, on the contrary, we are already suffering the long-run consequences of the policies of the remote or recent past. Today is already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore. The long-run consequences of some economic policies may become evident in a few months. Others may not become evident for several years. Still others may not become evident for decades. But in every case those long-run consequences are contained in the policy as surely as the hen was in the egg, the flower in the seed.

From this aspect, therefore, the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence:

The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.

Today is indeed already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore. It’s a pity Labour want us to keep on ignoring it. If their goal isn’t poverty and general immiseration, one wonders what it is.

Operation Twisted Logic – Detlev Schlichter

Via Operation Twisted Logic, an article by Detlev Schlichter, author of Paper Money Collapse: The Folly of Elastic Money and the Coming Monetary Breakdown:

… Like all state bureaucracies, the Fed is in fact struggling with problems that are predominantly of its own making. The Fed is the reason we are in this crisis. Or, more specifically, the present economic crisis is the inevitable consequence of the political decision to adopt a system of unconstrained, constantly expanding fiat money, in which the central bank, in its role as lender of last resort, systematically encourages bank lending and thereby the extension of credit on the basis of money printing rather than true savings. This system came into full bloom only in 1971, when Nixon severed the last link to gold and thus initiated, for the first time in history, a global system of unrestricted fiat-money creation.

The truth behind the deepening economic crisis is that, for 40 years, politicians have either not understood the monetary system or have acquiesced in the debasement of money to pay indirectly for promises which could not be funded out of taxation. The inevitable result is this crisis with its profound consequences for the welfare of hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, of people.

Sooner or later, the intellectual elite will have to accept that artificially cheap credit cannot overcome the simple law of reality that production must come before consumption. Low interest rates ought to be a sign of prior production and prosperity but central banks have perverted that crucial price signal for decades, massively misdirecting honest entrepreneurship.

There is before us a deeply painful correction. I wish it were not true – no one wants it – but neither denial nor despair will carry us through to lasting prosperity.  We urgently need deregulation, balanced budgets, simpler and lower taxes and monetary reform. Less would be mere tinkering.

Read Detlev’s full article here.

The greatest gift to the Greeks might be to let them go it alone – Telegraph

There comes a moment in any decent tragedy when the penny finally drops. The light breaks. The protagonist suddenly realises what a chump he has been – that he has somehow managed accidentally to marry his mother and kill his father – and that all his assumptions about his life are upside down. And the really awful thing about the tragedy now playing on the streets of Athens is that we haven’t even reached that bit yet.

Read more via The greatest gift to the Greeks might be to let them go it alone – Telegraph.

Inflation Is Here, and It Is Going to Get Worse – Frank Shostak – Mises Daily

A great lesson on inflation from Frank Shostak appears on mises.org, including this quote from Ludwig von Mises:

Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check. But people today use the term “inflation” to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is, the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. …

As you cannot talk about something that has no name, you cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation, rising prices. Their ventures are doomed to failure because they do not attack the root of the evil. They try to keep prices low while firmly committed to a policy of increasing the quantity of money that must necessarily make them soar. As long as this terminological confusion is not entirely wiped out, there cannot be any question of stopping inflation.

The point is that our monetary system is designed to produce inflation by encouraging bank lending and, when money creation through that mechanism falters, “Quantitative Easing” takes over. A better term would for all this would be be “robbery”.

Read the rest of the article here:  Inflation Is Here, and It Is Going to Get Worse – Frank Shostak – Mises Daily.

You may also enjoy The Crime Known as Quantitative Easing and the Violation of Mr Smith at The Cobden Centre.

Fortunately, these ideas are taking off. See for example the Adam Smith Institute’s What is inflation?

Incompetence at the Federal Reserve

Via The Cobden Centre, astonishing remarks from the Federal Reserve Inspector General, who doesn’t know who received trillions of dollars from the Fed:

The EU’s own Peter Principle?

Via Find out more about a career in the European Union – Telegraph:

Of course – it’s not for the faint hearted. The work is challenging. The EU Civil Service is relatively small. From your first day, you can expect to have a decent level of responsibility – you will instantly be the ‘go-to’ person on a particular subject.

So if you are looking for a career where you really get the chance to test your ability on a daily basis then the EU Civil Service could be for you.

The EU’s policies affect over 500 million citizens across 27 countries – not to mention policies on climate change, external relations and development which reach across the whole globe. So the work you do will be highly challenging but very significant.

Instant authority which tests your ability on policies that affect over 500 million people? Is that wise? 

I am reminded of the Peter Principle:

In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence.

Alternatives to capitalism: Nikolai Bukharin on the division of labour

A favourite brought forward.

Thinking about the pressures on capitalism — or rather, on the interventionism that passes for capitalism today — and on the alternative which was most comprehensively implemented, I discovered this recipe for chaos and failure from Bukharin:

Under communism people receive a many-sided culture, and find themselves at home in various branches of production: today I work in an administrative capacity, I reckon up how many felt boots or how many French rolls must be produced in the following month; tomorrow I shall be working in a soap factory, next month perhaps in a steam-laundry, and the month after in an electric power station. This will be possible when all the members of society have been suitably educated.

via Nikolai Bukharin and Evgenii Preobrazhensky: The ABC of Communism – Chapter III : Communism and the Dictatorship of the Proletariat.

As one who has not long studied Marxism, it is frankly amazing that Bukharin was hailed by Lenin as “a most valuable and major theorist of the Party” when he wrote such impractical nonsense. Here’s another taste of his particular madness, expounding on what we know as “from each according to his ability to each according to his work” and “from each according to his ability to each according to his needs”:

The communist method of production presupposes in addition that production is not for the market, but for use. Under communism, it is no longer the individual manufacturer or the individual peasant who produces; the work of production is effected by the gigantic cooperative as a whole. In consequence of this change, we no longer have commodities, but only products. These products are not exchanged one for another; they are neither bought nor sold. They are simply stored in the communal warehouses, and are subsequently delivered to those who need them. In such conditions, money will no longer be required. ‘How can that be?’ some of you will ask. ‘In that case one person will get too much and another too little. What sense is there in such a method of distribution?’ The answer is as follows. At first, doubtless, and perhaps for twenty or thirty years, it will be necessary to have various regulations. Maybe certain products will only be supplied to those persons who have a special entry in their work-book or on their work-card. Subsequently, when communist society has been consolidated and fully developed, no such regulations will be needed. There will be an ample quantity of all products, our present wounds will long since have been healed, and everyone will be able to get just as much as he needs. ‘But will not people find it to their interest to take more than they need?’ Certainly not. Today, for example, no one thinks it worth while when he wants one seat in a tram, to take three tickets and keep two places empty. It will be just the same in the case of all products. A person will take from the communal storehouse precisely as much as he needs, no more. No one will have any interest in taking more than he wants in order to sell the surplus to others, since all these others can satisfy their needs whenever they please. Money will then have no value. Our meaning is that at the outset, in the first days of communist society, products will probably be distributed in accordance with the amount of work done by the applicant; at a later stage, however, they will simply be supplied according to the needs of the comrades.

Where to begin a critique? “The applicant” for products? I think perhaps we should bear in mind the madness of this system when we lament our present circumstances.  We should remember that even in Bukharin’s peculiar dreams, repression was essential:

For a long time yet, the working class will have to fight against, all its enemies, and in especial against the relics of the past, such as sloth, slackness, criminality, pride. All these will have to be stamped out. Two or three generations of persons will have to grow up under the new conditions before the need will pass for laws and punishments and for the use of repressive measures by the workers’ State.

ConservativeHome’s Platform: Steve Baker MP: The EU is not yet beyond ridicule

Via ConservativeHome’s Platform: Steve Baker MP: The EU is not yet beyond ridicule:

I enjoyed delivering a brief polemic against EU spending in yesterday’s debate on the 16th consecutive failure of the EU budget to pass audit. Over 90% of EU spending was “materially affected by error” but I shared three stories which were apparently within the rules.

  • The €500,000 payment to two fishermen to scrap their boat in the interests of reducing overfishing, which cleared their debts and paid for a new, smaller boat in which they continued fishing.
  • The astonishing €8.5 billion spent failing to improve infrastructure in Sicily.
  • An incredible €2.5 million to support an Austrian nomadic contemporary dance troupe.

These were just three examples selected from a briefing by the superb OpenEurope. My constituents should not be paying for this and yet we find we cannot legally withhold their money from this asinine bureaucracy.

It would be too easy to declare the EU beyond ridicule but it simply isn’t. Here is a joke I received from a stalwart Wycombe Conservative this morning: [...]

Read the rest of the article at ConservativeHome.

Central banking and the economic consensus condemned

Via The Cobden Centre:

The absurd tragedy of our situation, explained brilliantly here (albeit in a US context), is astonishing. For a more formal corrective, see this primer.

Bond bubble burst will gut gilt investors, warns Merrill Lynch – Telegraph Blogs

Compare and contrast:

Via Bond bubble burst will gut gilt investors, warns Merrill Lynch – Telegraph Blogs:

Never mind what the Bank of England monetary policy committee says about interest rates on Thursday. One of the biggest wealth managers in the world is discretely warning its income-seeking clients to beware of bonds issued by the British Government; generally known as ‘gilts’.

Merrill Lynch Wealth Management fears that despite the apparent security of gilts, a combination of rising inflation – already underway – higher interest rates and the cessation of quantitative easing – both widely anticipated – could create a “perfect storm” for investors who buy these bonds at current market prices.

And via Friedrich August von Hayek’s Nobel Prize Lecture (emphasis mine):

In fact, in the case discussed, the very measures which the dominant “macro-economic” theory has recommended as a remedy for unemployment, namely the increase of aggregate demand, have become a cause of a very extensive misallocation of resources which is likely to make later large-scale unemployment inevitable. The continuous injection of additional amounts of money at points of the economic system where it creates a temporary demand which must cease when the increase of the quantity of money stops or slows down, together with the expectation of a continuing rise of prices, draws labour and other resources into employments which can last only so long as the increase of the quantity of money continues at the same rate – or perhaps even only so long as it continues to accelerate at a given rate. What this policy has produced is not so much a level of employment that could not have been brought about in other ways, as a distribution of employment which cannot be indefinitely maintained and which after some time can be maintained only by a rate of inflation which would rapidly lead to a disorganisation of all economic activity. The fact is that by a mistaken theoretical view we have been led into a precarious position in which we cannot prevent substantial unemployment from re-appearing; not because, as this view is sometimes misrepresented, this unemployment is deliberately brought about as a means to combat inflation, but because it is now bound to occur as a deeply regrettable but inescapable consequence of the mistaken policies of the past as soon as inflation ceases to accelerate.

Hayek’s remarks about the affect of new money on unemployment are of general applicability and might be considered an extension of the Cantillon Effect (PDF). Money is not neutral: where it is injected into the economy matters. New money – whether through QE or credit expansion in excess of real savings – certainly creates economic activity, but it also distorts the structure of activity into shapes sustained only by the injection of new money.

And so now we see that QE – injecting new money into the bond market – has created a problem in the bond market.

You can find out more about the errors of QE here.