Detlev Schlichter in Parliament today

Via The second crisis of socialism:

The world is facing the worst financial crisis since at least the 1930s “if not ever,” the Governor of the Bank of England said last week when he explained to an increasingly sceptical and weary public the Bank’s decision to print yet more fiat money and use it to buy yet more government bonds. I doubt that his words or his actions will do much to restore confidence. And they will not mean an end to this crisis.

Detlev spoke today to Parliament’s APPG on Economics, Money and Banking, setting out his case that the inflationary monetary system which has existed since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 is now collapsing. I founded the APPG to bring all relevant points of debate into Parliament: Detlev certainly achieved that, delivering a stern warning against complacency in this crisis.

More QE? Hold tight for a worse crisis later

From Mises’  Human Action:

The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

A paradigm shift in economics is necessary, in the sense meant by Thomas Kuhn, if we are to get out of this sustainably.

More QE to be discussed today

If the Bank of England today decides on more Quantitative Easing, I’ll produce an article explaining why they are wrong, why QE is a grave source of injustice and how it will fail to revive the economy. In the meantime, here’s a flavour from James Tyler at The Cobden Centre:

Governments achieve rising prices by encouraging the supply of new money.  This new money comes from the central bank via its control of the banking system.  The first users of this new money are invariably politicians, finance capitalism and big business. These guys get to use the newly minted money first, and thus spend it first.  This process bids up prices, leaving everyone else chasing behind, and poor old Mr Smith last in the queue.

What an evil system it is then, when government can control money in such a way as to give it a first user advantage that penalises all those in the general population whose wealth is being rapidly diluted.  A process that systematically violates and loots pensions, savings, fixed incomes and the actions of prudent, and rewards the profligate, the speculative borrowers and above all, rewards the biggest borrower of all: Government.

Operation Twisted Logic – Detlev Schlichter

Via Operation Twisted Logic, an article by Detlev Schlichter, author of Paper Money Collapse: The Folly of Elastic Money and the Coming Monetary Breakdown:

… Like all state bureaucracies, the Fed is in fact struggling with problems that are predominantly of its own making. The Fed is the reason we are in this crisis. Or, more specifically, the present economic crisis is the inevitable consequence of the political decision to adopt a system of unconstrained, constantly expanding fiat money, in which the central bank, in its role as lender of last resort, systematically encourages bank lending and thereby the extension of credit on the basis of money printing rather than true savings. This system came into full bloom only in 1971, when Nixon severed the last link to gold and thus initiated, for the first time in history, a global system of unrestricted fiat-money creation.

The truth behind the deepening economic crisis is that, for 40 years, politicians have either not understood the monetary system or have acquiesced in the debasement of money to pay indirectly for promises which could not be funded out of taxation. The inevitable result is this crisis with its profound consequences for the welfare of hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, of people.

Sooner or later, the intellectual elite will have to accept that artificially cheap credit cannot overcome the simple law of reality that production must come before consumption. Low interest rates ought to be a sign of prior production and prosperity but central banks have perverted that crucial price signal for decades, massively misdirecting honest entrepreneurship.

There is before us a deeply painful correction. I wish it were not true – no one wants it – but neither denial nor despair will carry us through to lasting prosperity.  We urgently need deregulation, balanced budgets, simpler and lower taxes and monetary reform. Less would be mere tinkering.

Read Detlev’s full article here.

Niall Ferguson reviews “Lords of Finance”

Via The great liquidity crisis – 94 years ago, Niall Ferguson provides an instructive review of Lords of Finance: 1929, The Great Depression, and the Bankers who Broke the World:

By the summer of 1931, however, it was dawning even on Norman that the world economy was falling off a cliff. With massive bank failures on both sides of the Atlantic, it became clear that the Lords of Finance had bungled things. “Unless drastic measures are taken to save it,” he wrote to Moreau’s successor at the Banque de France, “the capitalist system throughout the civilised world will be wrecked within a year.” (With a characteristic flourish, he went on: “I should like this prediction to be filed for future reference.”)

Such apocalyptic fears were not new. As early as November 1918 Strong had warned Norman of a coming “period of economic barbarism which will menace our prosperity”. The irony was that their favoured prophylactics had, in combination, made the apocalypse more likely. By 1931 the capitalist system was on its knees, and democracy with it. Schacht was soon flirting with the rising star of the German right, Adolf Hitler; he later served as his economics minister.

I would be delighted to be wrong, but it seems to me that the Lords of Finance have bungled things spectacularly once again. When it comes to the management of the currency, I am ever more inclined to agree with Richard Cobden:

I hold all idea of regulating the currency to be an absurdity; the very terms of regulating the currency and managing the currency I look upon to be an absurdity; the currency should regulate itself; it must be regulated by the trade and commerce of the world; I would neither allow the Bank of England nor any private banks to have what is called the management of the currency…
I should never contemplate any remedial measure, which left to the discretion of individuals to regulate the amount of currency by any principle or standard whatever… I should be sorry to trust the Bank of England again, having violated their principle [the Palmer rule]; for I never trust the same parties twice on an affair of such magnitude

I too should be sorry to trust the Bank of England again, particularly as they seem to have catastrophically misled entrepreneurs into making investment decisions which were justified only by artificially low interest rates. Central bankers’ actions have had calamitous results. The sooner money escapes their grasp, the better.

BBC News – Make foreign currencies legal in UK – Douglas Carswell

Via BBC News – Make foreign currencies legal in UK – Douglas Carswell:

A Conservative MP is to call for a basket of foreign currencies to be made legal tender in the UK.

Such a move would protect savers by allowing them to hold the currency least likely to be devalued, Douglas Carswell will argue in the Commons.

And it would allow consumers to shop around for the best currency deal – perhaps via a smart phone application – when buying goods in shops or online.

Mr Carswell will set out his case on Tuesday in a 10-minute rule bill.

ConservativeHome’s Platform: Steve Baker MP: The Fed is very nearly bust and it is probably not alone amongst central banks

A review of the US Federal Reserve’s own document: “FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release, H.4.1: Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and ?Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks”, issued on August 23rd 2011, reveals some interesting information about the state of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank: it’s very nearly bust. As it is indirectly the lynchpin of the global financial system, that matters to the UK.

via ConservativeHome’s Platform: Steve Baker MP: The Fed is very nearly bust and it is probably not alone amongst central banks.

Article on the money supply at thejc.com

Via Honesty is best policy | The Jewish Chronicle, my article on measuring the money supply:

Ask economists how much money there is and you will get many answers. You know money is what you can exchange for real goods and services, but economists often include things like time deposits, which cannot be spent because they have fixed terms. Money is one half of every transaction, so its supply really matters. According to my colleague Dr Anthony J Evans of Kaleidic Economics, the Bank of England’s preferred measures, “Narrow Money” and “Broad Money”, are either too narrow or too broad. From the perspective of the Austrian School of Economics, Anthony, together with entrepreneur Toby Baxendale, chairman of The Cobden Centre, has established and now publishes a different measure which they call “MA”. A chart (see above) of the growth of MA shows a pattern that is not visible in the Bank of England’s measures.

Given a good measure of the money supply, we shouldn’t be surprised that our economic and financial troubles continue. Please see the full article for more and Kaleidic Economics for the data and explanation.

First in Line for New Money – Doug French – Mises Daily

Via First in Line for New Money – Doug French – Mises Daily:

Increases in money aren’t sprinkled from the sky, floating indiscriminately into whoever’s hands are in the right place at the right time. Money-supply increases occur through the commercial banking system and Federal Reserve. Those who receive the money first benefit at the expense of those receiving the money last.

“The fiat dollar is an ‘elite’ system,” Jim Grant told the Wall Street Journal recently, “and Wall Street is its supporting ‘interest group’ — those nimble, market-savvy, plugged-in folks know how to shuffle assets and exploit cheap funding from the Fed to leverage up their profits and soften the downside.”

No wonder sales of luxury cars are up despite the general economic malaise.

Our present monetary arrangements are generating an unjust distribution of wealth while wrecking the economy for everyone. It’s time for that to change.

Credit expansion and the trade cycle

Via XX. INTEREST, CREDIT EXPANSION, AND THE TRADE CYCLE – - Mises Institute, which I recommend in full, old advice on our present situation:

The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

See also Kaleidic Economics’ plot of the growth of the money supply over the last decade or so. More of that fresh thinking in economics would not go amiss.