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The GDP figures: are economists failing the Chancellor?


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Today’s GDP figures have made the news through being significantly worse than forecast: there was a 0.7% fall in output compared to expectations of 0.2%. Here’s how the November 2010 forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (PDF) compares to the GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (PDF): Here’s how the OBR GDP projection looked in November 2010 (PDF): And in March 2012, just 16 months later (PDF): Now it’s true that the ONS data is provided quarterly and the […]

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