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The GDP figures: are economists failing the Chancellor?

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Today’s GDP figures have made the news through being significantly worse than forecast: there was a 0.7% fall in output compared to expectations of 0.2%. Here’s how the November 2010 forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (PDF) compares to the GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (PDF): Here’s how the OBR GDP projection looked in November 2010 (PDF): And in March 2012, just 16 months later (PDF): Now it’s true that the ONS data is provided quarterly and the […]

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The missing link in the professional debate about the economic crisis: production time

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Roger W Garrison’s Time and Money: The Macroeconomics of Capital Structure bursts with insight but this from the final chapter could be the missing link in the debate about the economic crisis: [D]oes the existence and variability of production time have a first-order claim on our attention? This is the question which divides the schools of economic thought. If the answer is ‘no’, then conventional macroeconomics is right to ignore production time when dealing with questions of short-run variations in output […]

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Speaking at the IEA on fiscal policy » The Cobden Centre

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On Tuesday, I spoke at the IEA’s The State of the Economy conference, participating in a panel discussion on Fiscal Policy and Government Expenditure with Edmund Conway, Sir John Bourn, Graeme Leach and Danny Alexander MP. Read more via Steve Baker speaks at the IEA on fiscal policy » The Cobden Centre.

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