Expect the Bank of England to be surprised by inflation in the next couple of months

The Bank of England’s latest Inflation Report forecasts falling inflation:

However, my preferred measure of the money supply, MA from Kaleidic Economics, is now rising at 6% year on year, in contrast to the Bank’s measures of broad money:

There are other factors at work too but there’s a certain inevitability about headlines like “Bank surprised by shock inflation data” before the summer is out.

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