A critical error of the Left

As Labour pours another £11bn of poison into the wells, I find myself reflecting on the economics of the Left, people who seem to be lamenting coming “Tory cuts” after so much “Labour investment”.

In the first place, Labour plan their own substantial cuts. More to the point, Labour’s spending was funded not by sustainable prosperity, but by one long credit expansion unbacked by real savings, which has now, inevitably, come to an end.

Left-wingers’ admirable intentions seem to be unmatched by a reasonable understanding of the means to bring about the good ends they intend.
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The Future and its Enemies

I just finished Virginia Postrel’s challenging The Future and Its Enemies: The Growing Conflict over Creativity, Enterprise and Progress. It is an appeal to embrace the dynamism of life and overcome our fears for the future. It is about real progress, not state-driven, top-down control.

Consider for example this, from page 42:

Conserving only the underlying stable rules, while letting individual decision making drive change, is a concept that a century of technocracy has made foreign to most people. It does not fit neatly into the comfortable old left-right dichotomy and does not line up with technocratic assumptions about the powers and uses of government. It has a hard time making its case, because it promises only general patterns of improvement — spontaneous order and discovery — not specific results.

In the context of our present system of stifling technocratic control and horror of the future, it’s a fascinating read. In the context of having cared for the homeless this morning in Wycombe’s night shelter — something operated by local churches and volunteers, not the state — it raises a challenge: how shall we care for the disadvantaged in a world of spontaneous order and yet ensure we leave none behind?

The answer is as simple as it is difficult. Individuals must learn to enjoy their freedom responsibly, not choosing to make themselves slaves to others, but helping wherever they can.

Postrel is the editor of Reason magazine.

Churchill’s Wit

One kind Christmas gift was Churchill’s Wit: The Definitive Collection. I am particularly savouring this gem (1906):

For my own part I have always felt that a politician is to be judged by the animosities which he excites among his opponents. I have always set myself not merely to relish but to deserve thoroughly their censure.

I expect that will keep me going through the heat of the fires of unreason of the statist left.

Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations

This post originally appeared on cobdencentre.org.

Via FT.com / US / Economy & Fed – Fed signals pullback in liquidity supports, we learn:

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday upgraded its assessment of the US economy and highlighted its intention to shut down most of its crisis-fighting liquidity facilities in early 2010.

And consequently:

Stocks eased slightly after the Fed statement, while the yield curve in the bond market steepened.


Which brings us on to Roger Koppl’s Big Players and the Economic Theory of Expectations.

I am indebted to Cobden Centre Supporter Bruno Prior for introducing me to Koppl’s work which extends the tradition of Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek and others, unusually, applying empirical methods to demonstrate the application of the theory.

Koppl demonstrates, with extensive reference to other scholars, that investment and all other economic actions depend on “subjective” expectations. He then presents a theory of expectations which assumes people interpret their situations in unpredictable ways. This theory includes a theory of “Big Players”:

Big Players are privileged actors who disrupt markets. A Big Player has three defining characteristics. He is big in the sense that his actions influence the market under study. He is insensitive to the discipline of profit and loss. He is arbitrary in the sense that his actions depend on discretion rather than any set of rules. Big Players have power and use it.

We learn that Big Players reduce the reliability of expectations, thereby disrupting markets. They encourage herding and produce perverse effects on entrepreneurship: traders must pay attention to the Big Player and not the fundamentals.

And so we find today, for example, the markets moving in response to the Fed not the realities of the economy…

Ofwat, Water UK, the Consumer Council for Water and The Managerial Revolution

In this article, I make the case that we live in a managerial society, one born in the tragedy of the first half of the twentieth century, and that it is this social system which is failing today. I also set out what can be done about it: the future is hopeful.

This morning, I watched on the BBC a fascinating series of interviews in connection with this story about water pricing:

Average water bills in England and Wales will be reduced slightly over the next five years, regulator Ofwat has announced.

It has ruled that typical bills will fall by £3 to £340 by 2015, before the impact of inflation is considered.

Of course, the interviews were not in themselves fascinating; they were fascinating for what they said about the way we have set up our society.

First, Ofwat’s Chief Executive explained with palpable enthusiasm what the regulator is going to do to the industry: force them to operate their businesses in certain ways, insist that there is a record amount available for investment, hold them to account and so on. Ofwat is of course a quango: its estimated expenditure for 2008-9 was £14,856,000.

At some point we heard the industry’s concerns. In September, Water UK, who are “working on behalf of the water industry towards a sustainable future”, said:

Unless Ofwat thinks again, the draft determinations will:

  • put at risk capital expenditure needed for the sustainability of water services;
  • delay service improvements consumers have requested and expect to be delivered;
  • reduce investors’ confidence in the financial stability of the sector leading to higher prices in the medium-term; and in consequence
  • provide a poor bargain for customers and society.

It might be worth reminding ourselves that there was a windfall tax on the utilities but we face an energy crisis: now we find the water industry saying, using jargon, that price controls threaten water supplies.

Returning to the BBC story, after Ofwat, we heard from the National Chair of the Consumer Council for Water, who explained how the Council would be standing up for consumers. Superficially, this is all very well — we would all like someone to stand up for us — but I immediately thought, “Is this a voluntary body of concerned consumers or a government body funded by the taxpayer?”

It is, of course, a government body, one with net operating costs of £5,836,000 in 2007-08.

We now wait for Water UK’s response to Ofwat’s announcement. We see a struggle of Titans in the media, all Titans funded by us: presumably operating Water UK costs the industry — and therefore all of us — a considerable sum every year (their accounts did not come immediately to hand).

So, in a nutshell and leaving aside indirect burdens, it appears the government is spending well over £20 million of our money every year just to deliver a ruling that we shall pay £3 a year less for water by 2015, ignoring inflation.

That will perhaps not come as a great comfort to the gentleman who was telling me recently that, at the age of 74, he is still paying income tax on the modest income he gleans from his savings and state pension. This is a man who worked and saved all his life.

He is right to be angry.

The nature of the system

Now, I have spent enough time with public servants to know that everyone means well. I know from personal contacts that senior civil servants are, on the whole, people of the very highest calibre, people of intellect and talent, good communicators with the best of motivations.

Nevertheless, the system which has been set up is one of conflict. Conflict between “the industry” (represented by Water UK), “the consumer” (represented by the Consumer Council for Water) and the regulator (Ofwat). It spends a great deal of money that we do not have.

Now, I do not propose in this article to prove whether this system is in any sense working or not: I attempt only to set out the pattern of our society and stimulate thought. Plenty of others have set out the case at length: see for example the Institute of Economic Affairs’ Living with Leviathan by David B. Smith. As Smith explains (emphasis mine):

New Labour’s so-called ‘third way’, and the prevalent economic paradigm in much of ‘Old Europe’, appears to correspond to none of these categories [free market, socialist and 'Butskellite' mixed]. Instead, it appears to be a system under which the private sector maintains a nominal legal control over its capital and labour, but the returns on these factors of production are so heavily influenced by tax and regulation that the public sector ends up effectively controlling such returns. This sham form of mixed economy, which needs to be distinguished from the British mixed economy of the 1950s, has traditionally been associated with fascist regimes – for example, the gelenkte Wirtschaft (supple or ‘joined-up’ economy) that Goering implemented in Nazi Germany in 1936. Such systems represent an obvious intellectual attempt to reconcile a socialist-inspired desire for a powerful interventionist state with the wealth-creating force of ‘bourgeois-liberal capitalism’, and tend to be popular with politicians and bureaucrats, because they force all sectors of society to kowtow to the state and its functionaries if they are to remain in business.

This is not a system of freely-chosen mutual cooperation: it is a system of managerial control.


The Managerial Revolution

It is very easy to find polemics against the social changes which were born in the first half of the twentieth century through two world wars and the Great Depression. They include, for example:

And it is very easy to find the relevant propaganda. However, it was only recently that I discovered a scholarly attempt to set out, in 1941, “What is happening in the world”: James Burnham’s The Managerial Revolution.

Burnham identifies and examines three theories of the development of society:

  • The permanence of capitalism,
  • The inevitability of socialism,
  • The transformation of capitalism into some non-socialist form of society.

Burnham — previously a Trotskyist — dismissed the first two and explained that society was experiencing a “Managerial Revolution”. Consider (emphasis mine):

Burnham looked around the world for indications of the new form of society which was emerging to replace historic capitalism and saw certain commonalities between the economic formations of Nazi Germany, Stalinist Russia, and America under Franklin D. Roosevelt and his “New Deal.” Burnham argued that over a comparatively short period, which he dated from the first world war, a new society had emerged in which a “social group or class” which Burnham called “managers” had engaged in a “drive for social dominance, for power and privilege, for the position of ruling class.” For at least a decade previous to Burnham’s book, the idea of a “separation of ownership and control” of the modern corporation had been part of American economic thought, with Burnham citing The Modern Corporation and Private Property by Berle and Means as an important exposition. Burnham expanded upon this concept, arguing that whether ownership was corporate and private or statist and governmental, the essential demarcation between the ruling elite (executives and managers on the one hand, bureaucrats and functionaries on the other) and the mass of society was not ownership so much as it was control of the means of production.

So, while Burnham made many incorrect predictions, it does appear that, at last, here we are, firmly entrenched in a managerial society. Ownership is separated from control. We do indeed have a managerial system along the lines Burnham identified: technical managers, executives, finance capitalists and stockholders. We see that the stockholders do not actually control the companies they own and that attempts to motivate managers by making them stockholders seem to fail because the downside is not shared: bank staff were already paid in deferred stock options before the crisis and, in any event, the crisis was caused by government intervention.

It is this managerial system of society which is now failing us. Let me give two further examples.

As I have reported here in respect of the European Union, an organisation whose propensity to issue detailed rules hardly needs a reference:

So we have the bizarre spectacle of socialists who think the EU may be neo-liberal, capitalists who think it is a socialist project and democrats who illustrate the EU’s democratic deficit to the agreement of its supporters and even the EU itself.

And yet Burnham wrote (1941):

The day of a Europe carved into a score of sovereign states is over; if the states remain, they will be little more than administrative units in a larger collectivity.

It seems to me that the European Union is neither neo-liberal, with all its restrictions on external trade, nor is it socialist, with its emphasis on a supposedly free market: the European Union is managerial.

In “The Living Dead: Switched Off, Zoned Out – The Shocking Truth About Office Life”, David Bolchover makes the case that:

The real truth is that there are millions upon millions of people who are actively disengaged from their jobs, who spend months and years sitting in offices doing next to nothing, lost in the cracks of laughably inefficient and abysmally managed large organisations, their talents wasted and long forgotten.

And there is the tragedy: talents wasted and forgotten. No one is arguing against individuals: we criticise the system in which we live and work. Surely the stellar success of Dilbert and The Office speak for themselves? Why not encourage a new system?

The fundamental problem and the route to progress

Society is the cooperative actions of billions of thinking, acting people. It is an unimaginably complex system which is not only beyond complete comprehension at any particular instant, but which remakes itself and its trajectory as people make subjective choices, moment by moment.

In other words, society cannot be managed. It is a self-organising system which must be allowed to do just that: organise itself.

Ironically, the scholastics of mediaeval Salamanca, who first wrote systematic treatises on economics, knew this, as did many of the enlightenment philosophers. Perhaps the “scientific socialists” forced us to forget.

Management is a worthwhile and laudable profession — I would say that, as a manager myself — but to apply a tool to a problem it cannot solve is a mistake. We have been making this mistake long enough. As Professor Jesús Huerta de Soto writes:

To attempt to coordinate society through coercion is an intellectual error.

Thankfully, David Cameron has been setting out, consistently over several years, a vision of a post-bureaucratic age:

We’re living in an age where technology can put information that was previously held by a few into the hands of almost every one. So the argument that has applied for well over a century – that in every area of life we need people at the centre to make sense of the world for us and make decisions on our behalf – simply falls down. In its place rises up a vision of real people power. This is what we mean by the Post-Bureaucratic Age. The information revolution meets the progressive Conservative philosophy: sceptical about big state power; committed to social responsibility and non-state collective action. The effects of this redistribution of power will be felt throughout our politics, with people in control of the things that matter to them, a country where the political system is open and trustworthy, and power redistributed from the political elite to the man and woman in the street.

For all the rough and tumble of contemporary politics, I am convinced that David Cameron and the Conservative Party have the right vision and the right policies to transform our society into a system which will prosper and endure. People need more power over their own lives, more opportunity, more responsibility and a secure environment within which to determine their own destiny.

The managerial revolution is at an end: it is time for change.

Further reading

How should we live?

After debating today with my pastor whether what the world needs is more or less government intervention in the cooperative actions of individuals (ie, the economy), I rediscovered the following from De Tocqueville (1835/1840). The passage paints his vision of a future democratic society, indicating how he foresaw people might live:

I seek to trace the novel features under which despotism may appear in the world. The first thing that strikes the observation is an innumerable multitude of men, all equal and alike, incessantly endeavoring to procure the petty and paltry pleasures with which they glut their lives. Each of them, living apart, is as a stranger to the fate of all the rest; his children and his private friends constitute to him the whole of mankind. As for the rest of his fellow citizens, he is close to them, but he does not see them; he touches them, but he does not feel them; he exists only in himself and for himself alone; and if his kindred still remain to him, he may be said at any rate to have lost his country.

Above this race of men stands an immense and tutelary power, which takes upon itself alone to secure their gratifications and to watch over their fate. That power is absolute, minute, regular, provident, and mild. It would be like the authority of a parent if, like that authority, its object was to prepare men for manhood; but it seeks, on the contrary, to keep them in perpetual childhood: it is well content that the people should rejoice, provided they think of nothing but rejoicing. For their happiness such a government willingly labors, but it chooses to be the sole agent and the only arbiter of that happiness; it provides for their security, foresees and supplies their necessities, facilitates their pleasures, manages their principal concerns, directs their industry, regulates the descent of property, and subdivides their inheritances: what remains, but to spare them all the care of thinking and all the trouble of living?

Thus it every day renders the exercise of the free agency of man less useful and less frequent; it circumscribes the will within a narrower range and gradually robs a man of all the uses of himself. The principle of equality has prepared men for these things; it has predisposed men to endure them and often to look on them as benefits.

This does appear to be more or less where we are today. Thankfully, De Tocqueville ends with one option which is cause for optimism:

A constitution republican in its head and ultra-monarchical in all its other parts has always appeared to me to be a short-lived monster. The vices of rulers and the ineptitude of the people would speedily bring about its ruin; and the nation, weary of its representatives and of itself, would create freer institutions or soon return to stretch itself at the feet of a single master.

Certainly we are close to ruin and certainly we are weary of our representatives: shall we create freer institutions or stretch at the feet of a single master? It should be obvious to even the most inconstant reader that I propose freer institutions and a life of responsible liberty under the rule of law.

A problem with this approach is that at least a significant minority insist on choosing actions which harm others or which produce in themselves harms which the compassionate seek to remedy. Perhaps wide-ranging freedom from government coercion can only survive if what is within us produces free choices which promote the well-being of ourselves and our fellows.

One source of this morality within is well-understood Christianity. What is to be offered to those and by those whose reason or disposition rules out Christ? Perhaps rational self-interest would do:

When one speaks of man’s right to exist for his own sake, for his own rational self-interest, most people assume automatically that this means his right to sacrifice others. Such an assumption is a confession of their own belief that to injure, enslave, rob or murder others is in man’s self-interest—which he must selflessly renounce. The idea that man’s self-interest can be served only by a non-sacrificial relationship with others has never occurred to those humanitarian apostles of unselfishness, who proclaim their desire to achieve the brotherhood of men. And it will not occur to them, or to anyone, so long as the concept “rational” is omitted from the context of “values,” “desires,” “self-interest” and ethics.

So, we should live in freedom, but we should recognise for ourselves the boundaries to that freedom. For many of us, that requires a change within. For those who fail to recognise the boundaries of order, there must be law.

Read more of “What sort of despotism democratic nations have to fear” here.

Ron Paul, End the Fed

US Republican Congressman and former presidential candidate Ron Paul has released End the Fed. Paul explains why we should care about central banks, how we got into the present economic mess and why the Federal Reserve should be abolished. It is a brief and enjoyable read with suggestions for more scholarly reading, some of which are on my bookshelf and within my recommendations for rethinking economics.

Today, we take for granted that a government should have a monopoly on the issue of currency and that the quantity of money should be manipulated by committees of wise men for our own good. There is an extensive body of serious literature which suggests we should should think again.

This is why we have established The Cobden Centre. Please take a moment to subscribe to our email updates.

Watch out for the campaign to audit the Fed. If Ron Paul’s bill becomes law, expect reform of the system of money to enter mainstream debate.

You’ve been Fleeced!

Fleeced!

Fleeced!

Via the Taxpayers’ Alliance:

On Monday, Matthew Elliott and David Craig released their new book Fleeced! How we’ve been betrayed by the politicians, bureaucrats and bankers… and how much they’ve cost us, published by Constable. Fleeced! is the very first book to analyse the financial, fiscal and political crisis resulting from a decade spent under the stewardship of Gordon Brown and is a devastating indictment of Brown’s time as Chancellor and Prime Minister. The authors, who were the first to reveal the shocking truth about Brown’s overspending since 1997 in their previous books, show that in 12 years of New Labour around £1.5 trillion of taxpayers’ money has been squandered on an acceleration in profligate government spending fuelled by the economic boom; and around another £1.5 trillion has evaporated in the bust.

Fleeced! was given a big preview in the Daily Mail who summarised the key chapters, explaining how the authors arrived at the eye-watering total of £3 trillion for Gordon Brown’s mishandling of the economy. The release of Fleeced! and Brown’s £3 trillion con were also reported in:

The Sun, Labour blunders cost taxpayers £3 trillion

Daily Express, Brown the bungler has cost every person in Britain £50,000

Daily Mail, Brown’s mishandling of the economy has cost £50,000 for every person in Britain, according to new book

Daily Star, Bungler Brown has bled Britain dry

Daily Telegraph, Gordon Brown ‘wasted three trillion’

The Guardian, Comment Is Free: I see no wisdom, Mandelson

This is Money, Brown ‘cost us £50,000 each’ in tax

Press Association, ‘Brown cost taxpayers £3 trillion’

Matthew Elliott was interviewed on Sky Sunrise on Monday morning and on John Gaunt’s Suntalk radio show on Tuesday.

Fleeced! RRP £8.99, is now available in all good bookshops and on Amazon here

EU faces ‘existential’ danger from economic crisis – Telegraph

This morning, I woke early and finished The Great European Rip-off: How the Corrupt, Wasteful EU is Taking Control of Our Lives.  I then discovered this article in the Telegraph:

The global financial crisis has inflicted such damage to free market principles that it risks undermining the core function of Brussels and triggering the disintegration of the European Union, according to the EU’s most revered economic figure.

Former Italian premier Massimo D’Alema said the EU’s modernisation drive sketched at Lisbon in 2000 was fantasy. “We are prisoners of our rhetoric,” he said. “It is an illusion to think that once crisis is over we will return to where we were. The US and China will emerge stronger: we will be left ever further behind. Within 15 years not a single country in the EU will qualify for the G7, except perhaps Germany.”

via EU faces ‘existential’ danger from economic crisis – Telegraph.

In this context, it is vitally important to form a strictly pragmatic view of the EU and whether it will help or hinder our recovery.

Craig and Elliott wrestle courageously to deliver just that in The Great European Rip-off, though the title rather gives away their conclusions. It seems to me any objective review of the EU would conclude that it is an exorbitantly expensive threat to our prosperity and freedom.
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Moral Markets and Honest Money

Revised and updated: reconciling our conflicting views of the market through consistent principle and morality.

A Christian friend is an avowed socialist and another associate is determinedly left wing. I asked them recently what socialism meant to them. The answer was essentially “people being good to one another”: kindness, compassion, fairness and justice, even liberty. Who would oppose that?

But can force make it so?

Though I write with great affection for my friends, when I hear or read “socialism”, I understand a quite different thing: misery. Everywhere Marxist theory was determinedly put into practice, the result was tremendous suffering, not utopia, and yet Marxist ideas persist in our thinking.

Socialism, though formally hopeful, causes misery because a socialist society must force individuals to take particular courses of action for the good of all. For example, Lenin’s acclaimed Marxist philosopher Bukharin wrote:

For a long time yet, the working class will have to fight against, all its enemies, and in especial against the relics of the past, such as sloth, slackness, criminality, pride. All these will have to be stamped out. Two or three generations of persons will have to grow up under the new conditions before the need will pass for laws and punishments and for the use of repressive measures by the workers’ State.

And so socialist societies have justified sustained repression.

When the Soviet Union fell, it seemed we all accepted that public ownership of the means of production was a dead end. New Labour and the “Third Way” came to prominence, despite the third way being nothing new, merely the idea that government can successfully intervene in a market economy to bring about positive outcomes. The problem is, it does not work.

Today, we have a financial crisis, a credit crunch, but few reflect that for a long time we have laboured under the most pervasive price control of all: deliberate manipulation of the rate of interest. Around the world, millions have waited with trepidation for committees of wise men to announce the interest rate. We have had a combination of historically low levels of saving combined with historically high levels of borrowing. Where did this mismatch come from? The rate of interest has been deliberately suppressed, misleading people into saving less and borrowing more than would have been sustainable.

The phenomenon is rather like a gym in which the treadmills may be remote controlled. If just a few people slow down, the central controller does nothing. But imagine the controller sees “too many” people slowing down at once for a break. “This will not do!” he cries, “We must have higher levels of activity!” He turns up all the treadmills at once, and keeps turning them up as exhaustion builds. Eventually large numbers collapse at once. Do we take a break and rebuild ourselves? No! We must inject adrenalin, take sports drinks, anything to get back to peak activity immediately. Eventually, this must end in catastrophe for the participants, but with artificially-low interest rates and quantitative easing, this is what we do to individuals and corporations in the economy.

The consequence is social disaster: high levels of government debt, unemployment and the direct creation of new money, a phenomenon which can only widen wealth inequality because new money is given to the wealthy. Yet this is the consequence of just one intervention in the free market.

When people set out to intervene in the economy by force of authority, they usually fail to realise a simple point: you cannot control the economy without controlling people. The economy comprises the actions of thinking, purposeful human beings with their own ends and means. Socialism requires intervention in that striving, intervention that at best has unintended consequences because the information necessary to intervene successfully is simply not available. Jamie Whyte’s The kindness of geniuses explains charmingly.

Those of us of good faith all want the same thing: prosperity, kindness, compassion, fairness, justice, liberty. People being good to one another. The twentieth century teaches us that state planning of the economy does not deliver these things, so how should society be organised?

Views of the free market

I asked my friends how they reacted to the term free market. They understand this term to mean exploitation. I understand it to mean freely-chosen cooperation for mutual benefit.

As we were sitting in a bar, I asked “Where was the exploitation when you bought that last round?” We wanted a drink, we had earned it in our own ways and the barman was happy to serve it to us. Perhaps the barman was there against his will, but how are we to know? Are we all to approach every transaction with a questionnaire? Should the barman have asked us if we had been exploited before serving us? Are we to invent possible exploitation somewhere up the supply chain for beer? Is it intrinsically exploitative for one man to serve beer to another?

Of course, this is absurd, but people suppose the free market inherently exploits without demonstrating how. This is not to deny the existence of isolated exploitation, but to question how free exchange is inherently exploitative, or corrupting, or the cause of whatever harm is perceived by the commentator. This is Marxist thinking and we know where it leads.

Before me, I have four books which begin to reconcile these difficulties:

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The Anatomy of (a responsibility) Revolution

The Anatomy of Revolution by Clarence Crane Brinton repays close study.

We find that:

  • Revolutionary movements arise in the discontent of prosperous people who feel “restraint, cramp and annoyance, rather than downright crushing oppression”.
  • Successful revolutionaries “are born of hope, and their philosophies are formally optimistic.”
  • Pre-revolutionary societies contain “very bitter class antagonisms” of considerable complexity.
  • There must be a transfer of allegiance of the intellectuals.
  • The governmental machinery must be inefficient under the strain of neglect and new circumstances.
  • The old ruling class – those antagonising the remainder – have come to distrust themselves, losing faith in their approach and becoming inept.
  • The financial breakdown of the state is often a trigger.

We discover that a working model of society is a network of interactions among individuals with a great many interwoven strands of connection. These connections are set by habit and world view and may sometimes be changed. Moreover, we learn that, when the law and exhortation are used to change behaviour, the effects are not long lasting:

In general many things men do, many human habits, sentiments, dispositions, cannot be changed at all rapidly, that the attempt made by the extremists to change them by law, terror, and exhortation fails, that the convalescence brings them back not greatly altered.

As David Cameron calls for a responsibility revolution, we must hope, on the historical evidence, that the country is poised for such a thing, and we must hope that the New Left’s cultural revolution of state dependency produced by law and exhortation turns out to be reversible.

It seems quite likely.

Police cannot be trusted with fines, magistrates warn – Telegraph

Via Police cannot be trusted with fines, magistrates warn – Telegraph:

Police cannot be trusted to hand out summary justice and will act as “judge and jury” if given powers to issue more on-the-spot fines, magistrates have warned.

In an extraordinary attack, the Magistrates’ Association said it is a “certainty” that officers will misuse powers because they cannot be “relied on” to handle them appropriately.

The comments have been made as part of the Magistrates’ Association response to the Government’s plans to allow police to issue £60 fixed penalties for careless driving.

Police have been accused of increasingly dealing with offences using on-the-spot fines as an easy way to hit the government’s crime targets.

Magistrates are worried that the number of offences now dealt with in this way is keeping some serious offenders out of the courts.

However, police leaders insisted that the use of the fines, which has risen sharply under Labour, helped to reduce paperwork and free up officers’ time.

It is a pity this story has been positioned as an attack on the police and a great pity if it is intended to be one. There is a legal and political principle at stake, a principle which was overturned when summary justice was first reintroduced in England and a principle which is hampered by an excessive reliance on a particular clause of Magna Carta:

No free man shall be seized or imprisoned, or stripped of his rights or possessions, or outlawed or exiled, or deprived of his standing in any other way, nor will we proceed with force against him, or send others to do so, except by the lawful judgement of his equals or by the law of the land.

This principle is that the Rule of Law requires due process. As Hayek put it in The Constitution of Liberty (p191, emphasis mine):

We have now concluded the enumeration of the essential factors which together make up the rule of law, without considering those procedural safeguards such as habeas corpus, trial by jury, and so on, which, in the Anglo-Saxon countries, appear to most people as the foundation of their liberties. English and American readers will probably feel that I have put the cart before the horse and concentrated on minor features while leaving out what is fundamental. This has been quite deliberate.

I do not wish in any way to disparage the importance of these procedural safeguards. Their value for the preservation of liberty can hardly be overstated. … Judicial forms are intended to insure that decisions will be made according to rules and not according to the relative desirability of particular ends or values. All the rules of judicial procedure, all the principles intended to protect the individual and to secure impartiality of justice, presuppose that every dispute between individuals or between individuals and the state can be decided by the application of general law. They are designed to make the law prevail, but they are powerless to protect justice where the law deliberately leaves the decision to the discretion of authority. It is only where the law decides – and this means only where independent courts have the last word – that the procedural safeguards are safeguards of liberty.

And so we come to the heart of the matter: Labour governments — and the left generally — do not share with Hayek, with liberals and with Conservatives an understanding of the Rule of Law. Witness for example Labour’s class law which was celebrated by one cabinet minister as “socialism in one clause”1. If I put my childhood in its context, it is clear that I would have benefitted from advantageous access to public services, coming from a working-class background. However, since I achieved social mobility, my children would now suffer for it. The absurdity of such a situation should be plain: socially-mobile individuals would disadvantage their children. The rational choice would be to make no attempt to advance oneself.

It would be too easy to rant and rave at the absence of procedural safeguards, particularly when justice in our country has been reduced to summary fines from council officials in this case for crumbs falling from a baby’s mouth2, but there is a more fundamental problem: a battle of ideas which is barely understood — the battle over ideas such as liberty, justice and equality.

Those of us who believe a good society is built on responsibility face two groups of opponents, neither of which appreciate the secondary effects of their actions:

  • Those well-intentioned but ill-informed people who would punish wrongdoing too expediently.
  • Those well-intentioned but uncomprehending people who trust authority to solve society’s problems.

Certainly, people should not drive carelessly. Certainly, they should not litter. But the issue is not that the police cannot be trusted to issue summary fines, but that summary fines rely on an understanding of the Rule of Law, liberty and justice which can only serve to undo what social progress we have made.

There has been a cultural revolution which has produced an expectation that the state should use expedient coercion to extract good behaviour from a resentful and sullen population. We need a better way and it is well-known: opportunity, responsibility and security from others — a return to classic English liberty.

  1. “Every public body will have to take class background into account when making decisions under radical new legislation unveiled by the Government today.” []
  2. Thankfully, this fine was overturned in court, but what a farce. If you think it isolated, look at this map of English liberty or read Raab’s The Assault on Liberty. []

Some favourite quotes from Karl Popper

Karl Popper is without doubt my favourite character in political philosophy. He was rational, believing knowledge and truth to be objective, but aware of the boundaries of reason. A scientist but concerned with the mechanisms of society. By humanitarian inclination a social democrat — when that meant “Marxist” — but by reason a liberal: a believer in freedom.

In the course of things, I rediscovered these quotations by Popper, which seem apt today, as we hastily seek solutions to our present difficulties:

I see now more clearly than ever before that even our greatest troubles spring from something that is as admirable and sound as it is dangerous — from our impatience to better the lot of our fellows.

Perhaps one from his time, when the foolish utopian experiment communism was still alive in the world:

It seems to me certain that more people are killed out of righteous stupidity than out of wickedness.

And defining ‘tyranny’:

You can choose whatever name you like for the two types of government. I personally call the type of government which can be removed without violence “democracy”, and the other “tyranny”.

On the role of intellectuals:

Why do I think that we, the intellectuals, are able to help? Simply because we, the intellectuals, have done the most terrible harm for thousands of years. Mass murder in the name of an idea, a doctrine, a theory, a religion — that is all our doing, our invention: the invention of the intellectuals. If only we would stop setting man against man — often with the best intentions — much would be gained. Nobody can say that it is impossible for us to stop doing this.

On historicism, but more generally applicable to positivism in economics: trying to produce specific outcomes when ultimately you can only do so by manipulating the actions of individual men and women:

We may become the makers of our fate when we have ceased to pose as its prophets.

On freedom and tolerance:

The so-called paradox of freedom is the argument that freedom in the sense of absence of any constraining control must lead to very great restraint, since it makes the bully free to enslave the meek. The idea is, in a slightly different form, and with very different tendency, clearly expressed in Plato.

Less well known is the paradox of tolerance: Unlimited tolerance must lead to the disappearance of tolerance. If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. — In this formulation, I do not imply, for instance, that we should always suppress the utterance of intolerant philosophies; as long as we can counter them by rational argument and keep them in check by public opinion, suppression would certainly be unwise. But we should claim the right to suppress them if necessary even by force; for it may easily turn out that they are not prepared to meet us on the level of rational argument, but begin by denouncing all argument; they may forbid their followers to listen to rational argument, because it is deceptive, and teach them to answer arguments by the use of their fists or pistols. We should therefore claim, in the name of tolerance, the right not to tolerate the intolerant. We should claim that any movement preaching intolerance places itself outside the law, and we should consider incitement to intolerance and persecution as criminal, in the same way as we should consider incitement to murder, or to kidnapping, or to the revival of the slave trade, as criminal.

So let us be tolerant then, but only up to the point our open society is threatened, and let us also be reasonable:

There are many difficulties impeding the rapid spread of reasonableness. One of the main difficulties is that it always takes two to make a discussion reasonable. Each of the parties must be ready to learn from the other. You cannot have a rational discussion with a man who prefers shooting you to being convinced by you.

And also, thinking of the sacrifices we are invited to make today for the future — I think particularly of the world’s desperately poor, who need inexpensive energy1:

Do not allow your dreams of a beautiful world to lure you away from the claims of men who suffer here and now. Our fellow men have a claim to our help; no generation must be sacrificed for the sake of future generations, for the sake of an ideal of happiness that may never be realised.

We might reflect on whether we are still permitted to apply our intelligence in every area:

The open society is one in which men have learned to be to some extent critical of taboos, and to base decisions on the authority of their own intelligence.

And whether we are succumbing to the temptation to rely on the government for our security at the expense of our freedom:

We must plan for freedom, and not only for security, if for no other reason than only freedom can make security more secure.

Most schemes of social organisation have been explored and lived through, but one thing is certain: those who follow us will have different ideas and preferences which we cannot know in advance. We must allow room for our successors to develop these ideas and preferences, that is:

We must go on into the unknown, the uncertain and insecure, using what reason we may have to plan as well as we can for both security and freedom.

  1. And we are not far behind. []

The American Museum in Britain, Bath

This past weekend, we visited the American Museum in Britain. It was thought-provoking: America was of course conceived in liberty but American history, like every nation’s, is filled with examples of man’s inhumanity to man.

The exhibition began with a wall of quotations from significant figures. These particularly stood out:

William Penn (1644-1718):

Those people who will not be governed by God will be ruled by tyrants.

Albert Einstein1:

Never do anything against conscience even if the state demands it.

Apache Chief Geronimo (1829-1909):

Once I moved about like the wind. Now I surrender to you and that is all.

Thus, beside the lives of pioneers, the museum introduced the history of native Americans and of African-American slaves, terrible experiences which no person should ever know. I was reminded of Karl Popper’s lines in The Open Society and its Enemies:

There is no history of mankind, there is only an indefinite number of histories of all kinds of aspects of human life. And one of these is the history of political power. This is elevated into the history of the world. But this, I hold, is an offence against every decent conception of mankind. It is hardly better than to treat the history of embezzlement or of robbery or of poisoning as the history of mankind. For the history of power politics is nothing but the history of international crime and mass murder (including it is true, some of the attempts to suppress them). This history is taught in schools, and some of the greatest criminals are extolled as heroes.

Coincidentally, I am just finishing John O’Farrell’s An Utterly Impartial History of Britain: (or 2000 Years of Upper Class Idiots in Charge). Perhaps spotting the gathering dust on my scholarly history books, Beth gave me this book as a starting point. It is at least an entertaining read, but the author’s endless cynicism, though supported by events, combined with his wearisome ignorance of sound economics, produces a tiresome read. Compare O’Farrell’s history with that of, say, This Little Britain: How One Small Country Changed the Modern World or The Welfare State We’re in and we quickly find that history, as the record of acting people, deserves to be understood through sound theories of human action.

Enter one of my preferred writers — Ludwig von Mises — with Theory and History (online). From the back cover:

Theory and History deals with the theory of economics, i.e., the study of purposive human action, and with history, the record of the past actions of individuals. All actions are determined by ideas. Thoughts and ideas are “real things,” Mises writes. “Although intangible and immaterial, they are factors in bringing about changes in the realm of tangible and material things.” Rather than rejecting the study of historical change as a “useless pastime,” Mises considers it of the utmost practical importance. “History looks backward into the past, but the lesson it teaches concerns things to come.” History opens the mind to an understanding of human nature, increases wisdom, and distinguishes civilized man from the barbarian. Moreover, historical knowledge is of the utmost importance in helping to anticipate and plan for the future.

A major part of this book is a critique of Karl Marx and his fallacious view of theory and history. Marx attributes the creation of tools and machines, as well as the economic structure of society, to undefined “material productive forces”; Mises rejects this materialistic view and points out that tools and machines are actually created by individuals acting on the basis of non-materialistic ideas. Marx predicts that society is moving towards socialism “with the inexorability of a law of nature.” Mises responds: “The outstanding fact about history is that it is a succession of events that nobody anticipated before they ocurred.”

The book is a tour de force of the ideas that have shaped human history and their refutations. In particular, bearing in mind O’Farrell’s sneering treatment of the free market:

The history of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries has discredited the hopes and the prognostications of the philosophers of the Enlightenment. The peoples did not proceed on the road toward freedom, constitutional government, civil rights, free trade, peace, and good will among nations. Instead the trend is toward totalitarianism, toward socialism. And once more there are people who assert that this trend is the ultimate phase of history and that it will never give way to another trend.

And, closing the book, on attempts at predicting the future:

The fallacy inherent in predicting the course of history is that the prophets assume no ideas will ever possess the minds of men but those they themselves already know of. Hegel, Comte, and Marx, to name only the most popular of these soothsayers, never doubted their own omniscience. Each was fully convinced that he was the man whom the mysterious powers providently directing all human affairs had elected to consummate the evolution of historical change. Henceforth nothing of importance could ever happen. There was no longer any need for people to think. Only one task was left to coming generations-to arrange all things according to the precepts devised by the messenger of Providence. In this regard there was no difference between Mohammed and Marx, between the inquisitors and Auguste Comte.

Up to now in the West none of the apostles of stabilization and petrification has succeeded in wiping out the individual’s innate disposition to think and to apply to all problems the yardstick of reason. This alone, and no more, history and philosophy can assert in dealing with doctrines that claim to know exactly what the future has in store for mankind.

Museums and historians must remind us of the wrongs of the past, and do so through the histories of many aspects of human life, even political power. Let us be guided by them to a better and more open future in which people can be free of all kinds of oppression.

Above all, let us use our reason to reflect on our present circumstances and conclude with Karl Popper that,

even our greatest troubles spring from something that is as admirable and sound as it is dangerous — from our impatience to better the lot of our fellows.

The idea whose time has come, the idea which can carry us forward — from difficulties created by people who wished to better the lot of their fellows, by people who wish to better the lot of future generations — is liberty under the rule of law.

  1. Also, “If one purges the Judaism of the Prophets and Christianity as Jesus Christ taught it of all subsequent additions, especially those of the priests, one is left with a teaching which is capable of curing all the social ills of humanity. It is the duty of every man of good will to strive steadfastly in his own little world to make this teaching of pure humanity a living force, so far as he can. If he makes an honest attempt in this direction without being crushed and trampled under foot by his contemporaries, he may consider himself and the community to which he belongs lucky.” []

Irving Fisher, “100% Money”

Via The Cobden Centre » Honest money, a summary of economist Irving Fisher’s “100% Money”:

The 100% proposal is the opposite of radical. What it asks, in principle, is a return from the present extraordinary and ruinous system of lending the same money 8 or 10 times over, to the conservative safety-deposit system of the old goldsmiths, before they began lending out improperly what was entrusted to them for safekeeping. It was this abuse of trust which, after being accepted as standard practice, evolved into modern deposit banking.

Meet the man who has exposed the great climate change con trick | The Spectator

This week, The Spectator writes Meet the man who has exposed the great climate change con trick:

James Delingpole talks to Professor Ian Plimer, the Australian geologist, whose new book shows that ‘anthropogenic global warming’ is a dangerous, ruinously expensive fiction, a ‘first-world luxury’ with no basis in scientific fact. Shame on the publishers who rejected the book.

‘The hypothesis that human activity can create global warming is extraordinary because it is contrary to validated knowledge from solar physics, astronomy, history, archaeology and geology,’ says Plimer, and while his thesis is not new, you’re unlikely to have heard it expressed with quite such vigour, certitude or wide-ranging scientific authority. Where fellow sceptics like Bjorn Lomborg or Lord Lawson of Blaby are prepared cautiously to endorse the International Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) more modest predictions, Plimer will cede no ground whatsoever. Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory, he argues, is the biggest, most dangerous and ruinously expensive con trick in history.

And as it happens, I just finished Nigel Lawson’s An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming. From the Afterword:

Much has happened over the year that has elapsed since this book was first published, and all of it has served only to reinforce its main thesis. That thesis, in a nutshell, was and remains the proposition that, even if the current majority view of the science of global warming is correct, the policy response we are told we must urgently adopt, of drastic curbs on global carbon dioxide emissions, makes no sense: it is both economically damaging and politically unattainable.

Lawson explains that, far from denying the science, he thinks it prudent to act as if it were correct, planning for adaptation. He does, however, touch on the science, showing that:

  • The science is neither certain nor settled.
  • Global warming is not happening right now.
  • Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant.

Now, I am not ready to take a position on climate science, nor to condemn climate alarmism as the new anti-capitalistic religion (as Lawson does), but it seems that a person concerned with the prosperity and well-being of humanity should take a critically rational look at the science and the suggested policy response. Lawson refers to a survey of climate scientists, two thirds of whom agreed that anthropogenic global warming is supported by the science, in which only 8% thought ‘climate change’ or ‘global warming’ was ‘the most pressing issue facing humanity today’. Whether we should accept the present policy response must therefore be a question worthy of debate, even among mainstream climate scientists.

For a critique of the science, I suggest Jo Nova’s The Skeptics Handbook and The Manhattan Declaration. For alternative perspectives on the associated environmental question of resource depletion, I recommend these videos on the arithmetic of growth and this essay on Oil and the Doomers’ Dire Predictions. You may also enjoy this Climate Quiz.

If we are serious about human progress, about promoting prosperity for the world’s poor, we must be rational. Reason shows that the route to social progress is unhampered cooperation between independent, interdependent people. It would be better if governments got out of the way, if poor nations industrialized and if we anticipated spontaneous adaptation if and when necessary.

Political power and democratic control in Britain

With all the debate about quangos, I wondered whether anyone had made the case against them based on the Rule of Law.

And so I found and added to my reading list Political power and democratic … – Google Books:

There is a sense in which quasi-government diminishes the role and authority of Parliament as well as its more obvious erosion of local government. In practice, the quango state removes layers and ares of policy-making and action from the parliamentary — and public — gaze. The absence of a constitutional framework and the informal and secretive nature of its policy processes blocks scrutiny and parliamentary and public debate about policy goals and outcomes. The government can co-opt and mobilise all manner of bodies, including private companies, consultants and advisers within the domain of quasi-government to carry out major tasks, such as industrial re-structuring, training and employment policies. Parliament has no oversight over the government’s creatures, their interests and processes, as they operate under cover of ministerial discretion. Indeed, even the government itself often has no direct control over them.

I am reminded of a quote attributed to Harold MacMillan:

We have not overthrown the divine right of kings to fall down for the divine right of experts.

And of the following campaign poster from the Conservative Party Archive (shelfmark 1929-31):

Inspectors all around

“Bad Thoughts, a guide to clear thinking” — Jamie Whyte

Jamie Whyte’s book “Bad Thoughts” is a tremendous guide for those who are seriously interested in the welfare of everyone in society, and who are not prepared to separate moral and intellectual seriousness.

Whyte’s 152-page book is entertaining and relevant and I do recommend it. In the meantime, I offer a brief and possibly inadequate guide to the key points here.

New Deal in Old Rome

From the Mises store:

How Government in the Ancient World Tried to Deal with Modern Problems

What a fantastic way to learn ancient history: via the parallels with modern times.

H.J. Haskell was a journalist with a huge background in ancient history, and here he does what everyone has wanted done. He details the amazing catalog of government interventions in old Rome that eventually brought the empire down. He shows the spending, the inflating, the attempt to fix prices and raise wage, the infrastructure boondoggles, the gross displays of public entertainment, the welfare scams, and much more.

At every step he draws a parallel with modern times. Modern governments also destroy the money to fund the state, extend vast military empires that are unmanageable, try to control the market order, and attempt to rig political decision making in order to buy off the population.

The comparisons between then and now generate ominous lessons for our times.

This book was a smash hit when it first came out in 1939, and yet it went out of print, and hasn’t been in print in half a century.

It seems fascinating and the PDF of the book is available here.

Update: From the conclusion:

The fundamental modern social problem is the problem that Rome failed to solve. It is the problem of building a unified yet free society, with decent minimum standards of living. A society so intelligently and justly organized that there is no menacing submerged class. A society that provides reasonable incentives for the free rise of a general staff of competent managers whose ranks are always open to fresh recruits. A society that develops a social pressure under which leaders accept an enlightened and far-sighted view of their responsibilities. This is the society which the long experience of Rome sets as a goal before the modern world.

As ever, it seems, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

The Apostle of Free Trade: Richard Cobden

I just finished Gowing’s 1885 biography of Richard Cobden, whose doctrine was that free trade would lead to world peace through interdependence and mutual cooperation.

Cobden was a leader of the Anti-Corn-Law League — a substantial feat of political agitation — which was established to oppose protectionist measures on corn and decrease the price of basic food products. Cobden viewed the task of the League as “instructing the nation.” We learn in the biography:

Only seven years before the total repeal of the Corn Laws the men who agitated for the Repeal were looked upon, by many of the most experienced statesmen of the country, as wild and reckless theorists — as, in fact, little better than madmen!

Cobden’s life was remarkable. For example, after Repeal and losing his former seat, Rochdale returned him to Parliament without a contest and in his absence. Fortunes were twice raised by subscription to assist Cobden out of difficulties arising from the sacrifice of his own business in the national interest.

Today, we do indeed need more Cobdens in politics.


Update:

The EU announced on 17 Oct 2008 that it would restore import customs duties on cereals on 30 Jun 2009. There are quotas too.

The TARIC database allows you to query duty rates. For example:

  • Roasted coffee from Brazil: 7.50% (apparently less a “tariff preference” of 2.60%)
  • Long grain, rough rice (of a length/width ratio greater than 2 but less than 3) from Vietnam: 211.00 EUR per 1000kg with a “non-preferential tariff quota” of 15.00%

You will find the EU has made available a full-featured online system for navigating the maze of tariffs and regulations, but haven’t they missed the point? Is this free trade?