Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built—and what we can do about it

Via Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built—and what we can do about it:

[...] Taken together, the UK and US studies both account well for existing data on cost underestimation and benefit overestimation. Both studies falsify the notion that in situations with high political and organizational pressure the underestimation of costs and overestimation of benefits is caused by non-intentional technical error or optimism bias. Both studies support the view that in such situations promoters and forecasters intentionally use the following formula in order to secure approval and funding for their projects:

underestimated costs + overestimated benefits = funding

Using this formula, and thus ‘showing the project at its best’ as one interviewee said above, results in an inverted Darwinism, i.e the survival of the unfittest. It is not the best projects that get implemented, but the projects that look best on paper. And the projects that look best on paper are the projects with the largest cost underestimates and benefit overestimates, other things being equal. But the larger the cost underestimate on paper, the greater the cost overrun in practice. And the larger the overestimate of benefits, the greater the benefit shortfall. Therefore the projects that have been made to look best on paper in this manner become the worst, or unfittest, projects in reality, in the sense that they are the very projects that will encounter most problems during construction and operations in terms of the largest cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and risks of non-viability. They have been designed like that, as disasters waiting to happen.

The paper goes on to say, “Professional and occasionally even criminal penalties should be enforced for managers and forecasters who consistently and foreseeably produce deceptive forecasts”. Wise words yet we shall have to hope the HS2 project and all the other infrastructure projects planned by the Government are unique in not suffering from the endemic flaws described in the paper.

I’ll leave interested parties to read the paper for themselves but I will add this: while the Government has cloaked itself in the legacy of the great British railway pioneers, they were entrepreneurs risking private capital in commercial projects. The same cannot be said of HS2.

That matters and it matters for all the reasons we have historically defended free societies from the encroach of planning.

Speech to Positive Money on money and banking

A speech on money and banking given to Positive Money’s conference last October (sorry about the cold!):

See also my writing on economics here and for The Cobden Centre.

Economics in One Lesson: IV – Public Works Means Taxes

Every week over 26 weeks, I’ll be publishing a précis of a chapter of Henry Hazlitt’s brilliant 1946 book, Economics in One Lesson, prepared by Michael Dowsett during his internship. The index page is here.

This week, Public Works Means Taxes, which explains that people forget the unseen cost of political infrastructure projects…

Buy or download Economics in One Lesson.

The Government has more work to do against regulation

The British Chambers of Commerce has published a report showing that the Coalition still has a long way to go to tame the state’s mania for excessive regulation.

Red Tape Challenged? reveals that 42% of new regulations are not covered by the Coalition’s One-In, One-out (OIOO) rule for regulations. This is because they concern tax or the environment or come from the European Union. Such a high figure – if it continues – will make a mockery of the Coalition’s aim to be the first administration to leave office having reduced the volume of regulation.

Equally disappointing, the study argues convincingly that the current volume of regulations is still  too high and that the process for passsing regulations is still flawed. The Government’s Statement of New Regulation, published in September 2011, showed that the net regulatory cost to businesses in the UK is £45 million for the October Common Commencement date. We are still strangling our wealth producers in red tape.

The situation is not totally bleak. There has been some progress with the introduction of the OIOO policy, the deregulatory measures on employment law and the Regulatory Policy Committee’s work.

Yet the problem is far from under control. The scrutiny of regulations is weak without a ‘guardian’ to ensure it is being delivered – the BCC argues this role should go to the Better Regulation Executive.  ‘One-in, One-out’ has potential to have a big effect, but the current exemptions and lack of transparency with Impact Assessments make it difficult to police. Brussels is still churning out proposed regulations especially over employment and health & safety.

In a timely warning, BCC Director General John Longworth writes “To be blunt, businesses the length and breadth of the country are yet to feel any concrete or positive change. Only substantive reductions in the regulatory burden will give companies confidence and enable them to plan for future growth with certainty and clarity.”

Indeed.

Wycombe Hospital consultation meetings

Steve Baker outside Wycombe Hospital

Outside Wycombe Hospital

A crucial public consultation on the future of Wycombe Hospital began on 16 January. It is being run by Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust, which runs Wycombe Hospital. This is our chance to have our say on proposals to change how NHS services are provided in High Wycombe.

The exercise runs until 16 April and there are consultation meetings scheduled throughout the area every week in February. I urge everyone who cares about the future of our hospital to take part.

Click here for an explanation of the proposed changes and the schedule of public consultation meetings you can attend.

Ever since I was first selected  as the Conservative candidate for Wycombe, I have been working hard with local supporters of Wycombe Hospital. We are all keen to see services in the hands of the community and removed from further creeping centralisation and losses of service provision. So I welcome the Government’s intent in these current health reforms, which aim to move all NHS Trusts to NHS Foundation Trust status by April 2014 and to pass responsibility for purchasing patient care from Primary Care Trusts to the newly formed GP consortia a year before that.

This is a continuation of Labour Policy under the Blair government. NHS Foundation Trusts were introduced by Labour in the 2003 Health and Social Care Act as legally independent public benefit corporations. They are: 

  • Authorised and regulated by an independent regulator, known as Monitor;
  • Accountable to their local communities through a system of local ownership with members and elected governors – the governors being elected by the members;
  • Not required to break even each year although they must be financially viable. They can borrow money within limits set by the regulator, retain surpluses and decide on service development for their local populations;
  • Free from central government control and strategic health authority performance management; and
  • Required to lay their annual reports and accounts before Parliament each year.

There was a move to switch to Foundation status in Bucks during 2008 that was unsuccessful due to financial constraints. This initiative will be revived and a new submission is to be made in September 2012. I would encourage members of the public to support this move to Foundation status so that local people, as members and governors, can have much more direct control over Buckinghamshire hospitals.

My concerns are that Foundation Trusts may become too large and controlled from remote centres. That would be the opposite of both the Government’s vision and my own of a devolved and cooperative local arrangement. We need to avoid the bureaucracy and lack of accountability which has plagued the NHS locally for so long.

In the meantime, I again urge everyone interested in future of health provision in Wycombe to join in the consultation process. NHS consultations are currently how local voices are heard and I think it vital that hundreds of local people take part.

Bucks home to school transport consultation ends on 31 Jan

Via Bucks County Council:

Time running out for consultation on the future of home to school transport

There are only [8] days left for parents to have their say on the proposed changes to Buckinghamshire’s home to school transport policy, due to be implemented in September 2012. 

The changes, likely to affect the majority of secondary school pupils, would mean that transport will only be provided to the pupil’s nearest secondary school.  Under the existing policy, pupils currently receive free transport to their choice of catchment school, including grammar schools, if they live over 3 miles away from the school. If a child is from a low income family and is entitled to free school meals; a family is in receipt of maximum working tax credit; a child has special educational needs, a disability, mobility problems or is eligible on specific road safety criteria, the Council will continue to provide free home to school transport where the statutory criteria are met.

Mike Appleyard, Buckinghamshire County Council’s Cabinet Member for Education and Skills, has already met with parents during public meetings held across the county before Christmas. A further five meetings are due to take place before the consultation ends on 31 January.

Cllr Appleyard said: “Through these meetings, I have been made aware of some specific issues that had not been fully considered when drawing up these proposals and I am now seeking solutions which will be used to form the final policy. The final policy is not a done deal and remains subject to the findings of the consultation.  I’m grateful to parents for bringing these issues to my attention and I encourage as many parents to come along to the meetings as possible.”

The new proposals will help achieve savings of £1.4m (or 10%) from the home to school transport budget, all part of the Council’s need to cut its overall spending by 50% over the next nine years. To read the proposal in full and complete the survey online visit www.buckscc.gov.uk/schooltransport

Via Detlev Schlichter: Deceits and delusions – Some thoughts on the euro-crisis and democracy

Anybody with any knowledge of economics should feel uneasy at the sight of a country where half of recorded economic activity is conducted by the state. Are such semi-socialist societies operable, and if so, for how long?

Read the article via Deceits and delusions – Some thoughts on the euro-crisis and democracy.

Here’s the growth of the British Government to over half of GDP:

The growth of the British Government

We can escape this mess towards sustainable prosperity, but that escape will require substantial reforms towards sound institutions of social cooperation: honest money, strong property rights, freedom to contract, an end to trade barriers and lower, simpler taxes.

A day trip to Belfast and a lesson in the consequences of violence and statism

I travelled yesterday to Belfast East, where I spoke with Conservatives from across Northern Ireland who are working to normalise politics, diffusing and moving beyond sectarianism:

I learned and saw far more than I can share today but my overwhelming impression was of a great people who have been hamstrung by violence, sectarianism and the growth of the state. Taken together, the result has been the destruction of great industries and the conversion of prosperity based on production into dependency. That is the lesson we must all learn: live in peace and produce what others value.

There is much to be done to bring positive change to the entire UK, but Northern Ireland is a part within it which requires our help. I am thankful that Northern Ireland Conservatives have such determination, spirit, kindness and insight. I wish them every success.

Poster of the week – 1929, “Socialism would mean inspectors all round”

From the Conservative Poster Archive, poster 1929-31, “Socialism would mean inspectors all round”.

Conservative Poster 1929-31

Too true, unfortunately: see Harry Snook’s Crossing the Threshold - 266 ways the State can enter your home from the Centre for Policy Studies (PDF) and my related question in debate.

Bank of England’s Haldane endorses concerns on bogus bank accounting

The Bank of England’s Executive Director Financial Stability, Andy Haldane, has set out the case for banks to be held to different accounting standards because the existing rules have may allowed banks to overstate their profits and exacerbate their losses. This is something I covered in a private members’ bill last year, with particular reference to derivatives.

As reported in the Guardian:

Accounting rules for banks have bent with the financial stability wind in ways which have amplified investor and regulatory uncertainty. To lean against the prevailing wind, accounting rules for banks may need to recognise more explicitly their differences…It is, after all, precisely these differences that justify separate regulatory and resolution regimes for banks. A distinct accounting regime for banks would be a radical departure from the past. But if we are to restore investor faith in banking sector balance sheets, nothing less than a radical rethink may be required.

And via The Telegraph:

Mr Haldane argued that “fair value” accounting systems, like the current International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), had contributed to other crises including the Wall Street Crash and Great Depression.

He said: “Accounting rules in general, and fair value principles in particular, appear to have played a role in both over-egging the financial upswing and elongating the financial downswing. They have tended to over-emphasise return in the boom and under-emphasise risk in the bust.”

and:

The rules have even hampered auditors’ abilities to determined whether a bank is bust. By failing to properly expose bank real liabilities, the system has made “assessments of going concern’ by the auditing profession problematic,” said Mr Haldane.

In December, I chaired an event with Gordon Kerr, launching his report The Law of Opposites, which showed that banks use accounting loopholes to inflate their profits and bolster staff bonuses. In response to Mr Haldane’s recent comments on the reform of accounting rules, Gordon said:

Andy Haldane is right that fair value accounting is being used by bankers to game taxpayer bailout funds. My recent report “The Law of Opposites”  supports this view, highlighting how RBS in particular paid staff “profit based bonuses” when the bank was in fact loss making under UK Company Law.  

But Mr Haldane deserves particular congratulations for having the courage to put his name and reputation behind this.  HM Treasury, the FSA and UKFI have stood passively by and watched the health of the bailed out RBS and LloydsHBOS deteriorate whilst their senior employees work on plundering, this month, bailout funds.  The prevalence of accounting devices such as underprovisioning for expected losses, booking profits based on the fall in value of banks’ own debt, and failing to deduct from profits and capital deferred but promised bonuses, exposes the abject failure, post bailout, of state regulation of the banking sector.

This kind of crony capitalism at taxpayer expense must be brought to an end through the reform of our institutions. One of those institutions in desperate need of reform is accounting, dry as that may seem. The Government should now make progress in this direction.