Via Detlev Schlichter: Deceits and delusions – Some thoughts on the euro-crisis and democracy

Anybody with any knowledge of economics should feel uneasy at the sight of a country where half of recorded economic activity is conducted by the state. Are such semi-socialist societies operable, and if so, for how long?

Read the article via Deceits and delusions – Some thoughts on the euro-crisis and democracy.

Here’s the growth of the British Government to over half of GDP:

The growth of the British Government

We can escape this mess towards sustainable prosperity, but that escape will require substantial reforms towards sound institutions of social cooperation: honest money, strong property rights, freedom to contract, an end to trade barriers and lower, simpler taxes.

The European Union’s failure by its own standards

The 2011 Legatum Prosperity Index includes a number of insights. The fourth article is “The European Crisis: Time to Rethink Integration?”

In a sidebar, the author explains that the average confidence in a European Government is 12% lower than the Index average. Legatum suggests that European electorates feel increasingly excluded as national parliaments have ceded more power to the Union, opening up a gap between the process of European integration and public opinion.

Indeed.

The main article begins:

The Prosperity Index findings suggest that top-down political integration by European policymakers has done little to equalise economic or institutional differences among European countries. The income gap between the richest and poorest EU member states remains vast. Countries in the Mediterranean area report high levels of corruption, low rates of social trust, low levels of rule of law, and inefficient public sectors. European integration also seems to fail to raise institutional quality in these countries, as indicated by low public opinion regarding the quality of the court system and fewer reported instances of citizens voicing their concerns to officials.

And they write:

For decades, European policymakers have relied on top-down measures to encourage convergence on a whole range of economic, political, and social policies. The Prosperity Index reinforces the widespread impression that such convergence, as presently understood, has not occurred. This suggests that more top-down integration is unlikely to solve Europe’s crisis.

There are so many questions to ask, about whether convergence necessarily raises standards, about whether convergence promotes systemic failure, about the nature of diversity and plurality and whether people should be allowed the dignity of making their own choices, but these are for other days. For the moment, it simply appears that the EU is a failure by its own standards.

What Europe needs is not absolute homogeneity – its diversity is its joy – but peace, free trade and essential liberties. Adam Smith’s easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice may be left to the nation states.

Wishing everyone a prosperous new year

After so much economic turmoil, the traditional wish for a prosperous new year can be given with considerable vigour.

The 2010 Legatum Prosperity Index (PDF) – “the world’s only global assessment of wealth and wellbeing” – showed that entrepreneurship and opportunity are the primary keys to prosperity, that they correlate more closely to a nation’s overall prosperity than any other factor.

In particular, Legatum found that:

  • Prosperity is found in entrepreneurial democracies that have strong social fabrics.
  • Prosperity is a blend of wealth and happiness, but not as one might think.
  • Global prosperity is changing in unexpected ways.

In 2010, the UK was 13th overall, behind Norway, Denmark, Finland, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, Canada, Switzerland, Netherlands, the United States, Ireland and Iceland.

In 2011, we find ourselves again in 13th place behind the same countries but still ahead of, perhaps surprisingly, France, Germany and Austria. Taking the economy in isolation, we are well ahead of Ireland and Iceland at 21st, compared to 35th and 71st respectively. It looks like our overall rating is brought down by safety & security (23rd), the economy (21st) education (19th) and health (17th).

On entrepreneurship & opportunity, we are 4th in the world, according to Legatum, just above the USA.

It is true we face huge problems, not least of which are our financial institutions and Labour’s legacy of overspending, but we remain prosperous by international standards and, by the ranking which correlates most closely to overall prosperity, we are very well positioned.

For all our difficulties, there are reasons to be optimistic about prosperity in the UK in 2012 and beyond.

You can find and download the 2011 Legatum Prosperity Index rankings here.

Did I have a Freudian slip when asking about the EU at PMQs?

In the Daily Mail, Quentin Letts reports that I called for the UK to quit the EU altogether at PMQs yesterday. Some colleagues also thought I said “leave” not “lead”.  Hansard reports my intended words:

Steve Baker (Wycombe) (Con): Does my right hon. Friend agree that it is time for this country to lead Europe into the hope and potential of a new post-bureaucratic age?

The Prime Minister: I think that there are opportunities for Britain in Europe, and we should start from the premise that it is in Britain’s interest to be in the single market. We are a trading nation, so we need those markets open, and to be able to determine the rules of those markets. As Europe changes, of course there will be opportunities, but the first priority at the end of this week must be to ensure that the eurozone crisis, which is having such a bad effect on our economy, is resolved. At the same time, however, we should be very clear about the British national interest: safeguarding the single markets and the financial services, and looking out for the interests of UK plc.

I was quoting the Prime Minister. He made the following remarks in Prague in 2007 in relation to the EU, according to the BBC:

And he added: “It is the last gasp of an outdated ideology, a philosophy that has no place in our new world of freedom, a world which demands that we fight this bureaucratic over-reach and lead Europe into the hope and potential of a new, post-bureaucratic age.”

I agree that the philosophy of the EU has no place in our new world of freedom. What Europe needs – free trade, peace and fundamental liberties – could be arbitrated under a much more limited institution such as the Council of Europe.

Autumn Statement chart of the day: tax and spending

The economic facts behind the Autumn Statement, in as far as they are known or forecast, are available in the Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Office for Budget Responsibility. Table 4.7 provides forecast current receipts. Table 4.18 provides total managed expenditure. So, here’s a chart of current receipts (i.e. tax) and total managed expenditure (i.e. spending) for the next few years:

The reality is that the Government intend to increase spending every year of the forecast period and to meet that spending with increased revenues. There will only be cuts as a proportion of GDP, and only if it grows. There will only be real cuts if there is inflation.

It’s tragic that we have created for ourselves a state which cannot provide more with more money and that, from the perspective of real public services, there are cuts at all.

There’s much to be said about inflation, inflating the debt away and, indeed, inflating away public expenditure. There’s something fundamentally dishonest about it. That’s why I co-founded The Cobden Centre to press for honest money: our inflationary financial system is undermining society, just as Keynes and Mises said it would.

Keynes wrote,

There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

And Mises explained,

Inflation is the last word in destructionism. The Bolshevists, with their inimitable gift for rationalizing their resentments and interpreting defeats as victories, have represented their financial policy as an effort to abolish Capitalism by destroying the institution of money. But although inflation does indeed destroy Capitalism, it does not do away with private property. It effects great changes of fortune and income, it destroys the whole finely organized mechanism of production based on division of labour, it can cause a relapse into an economy without trade if the use of metal money or at least of barter trade is not maintained. But it cannot create anything, not even a socialist order of society.

We have been plunged into the present misery by a long credit boom caused by low interest rates. Politicians now seem to be helpless in the face of a crisis caused by the inflationary financial institutions they have allowed for the decades following the collapse of Bretton Woods. The only prescription for recovery appears to be more inflation or, as they call it today, “quantitative easing” and “credit easing”.

Yet more money and bank credit may lead to a boom initially, or perhaps merely to a moderation in our difficulties compared to our neighbours, but it is bound to erode the capital stock, to hide losses and to cause a yet worse problem later. The illusion of prosperity created by “monetary activism” cannot last.

If we are to have lasting prosperity and a just socio-economic system, we need instead, as the Chancellor used to say, an economy based on save and invest. That requires, as prerequisites, honest money which holds its value and a state which lives within its means.

Freedom in Education: the profit motive

NB: this post is by Tim Hewish, my Parliamentary Researcher, and the views expressed are his own.

I recently attended the E. G. West Memorial Lecture delivered by Professor James Tooley and sponsored by the IEA on the topic of for-profit schooling.

He noted that the word profit is highly politicised and many would not wish to even countenance the notion that profit-making should be implemented in schools.  Professor Tooley prefers the term freedom in education because when we discuss freedom of association we do not object to people making a profit when they meet freely in social co-operation. Therefore, why not in education?

Universal access is a strong label to argue against; however, he objects to the term compulsory education as you cannot compel someone to learn, you merely give them the opportunity. If you look at the number of truancies in the UK this bears out.

Tooley, first through historiography then secondly through present day international examples explains how for-profit education has been successful for the UK and the third world’s poor.

He shows that in 1861 only 4.5% of school children were not in school and the Education Act 1870 was brought in to address this deficit. However, the more the State moved into education it reduced the number of thriving private schools. Parents paid about 7 or 8 pence per week which was possible to pay for but when greater taxation came in and schools were offered cheaper options some even for free, this undercut the existing self-sustaining schools.

Internationally, his work in Africa, India and China shows how for-profit schooling is thriving in these regions. In Nigeria 41% of schools are recognised private, 33% unrecognised and only 26% Government funded. While in Delhi, private schools for the poor are outperforming state run institutions. More evidence can be found by reading his work the Beautiful Tree.

Putting examples to one side, the enduring Left/Right divide is about process. We both want the same basic ends: freedom and prosperity which is both fair and universal, but those on the Right focus less on motives and more in outcomes, the Left visa versa.

For conservatives, the profit motive is reconciled under the aim of results. These for-profit schools are benefitting the world’s poorest without State intervention. It is giving them a better chance in life. The Left will always struggle with this.

In addition, the Left are making the assumption that the State is without motive. Many politicians are driven by the vote motive, likewise civil servants the power motive. They are not devoid of pressure which is not altogether altruistic. We are not angels.

Currently in state education, the allocation of resources are not left to the market place of ideas which are then tested against others. They are left to politicians and civil servants. You could even argue that for-profit schools have more incentives to succeed because the failure would mean closure harming all concerned, whereas state funded schools can continue unharmed, propped up by tax payer money.

The arguments that for-profit schools would leave some pupils at the bottom as they are not ‘profitable’ are disingenuous because after over a 100 years of state schooling and each child receiving  12 years of compulsory education 22% of pupils leave innumerate and 17% illiterate. The Evening Standard’s campaign to highlight the literacy crisis in London supports this position.

Also pupils are left behind under the current state system. Sink schools leave economically poor but bright pupils in a system of mediocrity.

Furthermore, schools today are often oversubscribed and are simply not being built. As the report from the Adam Smith Institute shows: 15.4% of parents nationally did not secure a place at their first choice preference in 2011 and one in ten pupils are now educated in schools that have exceeded their capacity with pupil numbers projected to raise by 8% by 2014-14.

Put simply: There is a frustrated demand and an inadequate supply in the schools market. To be denied the freedom to set up a school for-profit is damaging to the success of pupils from all backgrounds.

Therefore, to allow Free Schools to be run for-profit isn’t something that should be taken off the policy table. In Sweden, 63% of their free schools are run by joint-stock companies and new applications come almost entirely from for-profit organisations.

I can sense it is one half of the Coalition dragging their ideological heels as the for-profit label is too much to stomach. Yet they should look deep into their foundations as a party of Freedom and listen to their founding father:

I confess I think these Resolutions are conceived in a spirit adverse to that national character. They have a tendency in utter contrariety to it. They tend to encourage a dependence which is alien and foreign to the minds of Englishmen—to substitute that which is mechanical, technical, and formal for that which is free, open, elastic, and expansive

The element of the freedom in which we move and breathe and have our being is essential to the development of the English character, and, if you take it away, you pine and starve that character, and any substitute you can give in the form of Education Returns is utterly worse than worthless.

Spending – up. Borrowing – up. Debt interest – up.

Via National Statistics Online – Public Sector Finances, the trajectory of cumulative public borrowing this year more or less matches last year:

Public borrowing and net debt

See also Deficit plan under pressure as UK borrows £14bn more in June.

Here’s the tragedy: while my constituents and people across the country are seeing real reductions in services and worrying about cuts to public spending, public sector borrowing in June was slightly worse than last year and Government expenditure will increase in cash terms every year of the next five.

In that context, press coverage of our dreadful financial position is woeful.

The state continues to live beyond its means, even as this Government wrestles to bring spending under control. Our public debt is increasing. The Bank of England continues to hold down the headline rate of interest. Inflation is too high, with all the injustice that entails for savers and those on low or fixed incomes.

Prosperity does not follow from borrowing to fund present consumption: it comes from consuming less than is produced, saving the excess and investing in capital goods, real productive capacity. If we are serious about prosperity for everyone in this country, journalists must raise the quality of public debate and Government spending must be reined in with the consent of the population.

That is the task facing the press today: not to promote denial or despair, but to encourage real understanding of the scale of the challenge we face.

Entrepreneurship and opportunity are the primary keys to prosperity

It’s my 40th birthday. I found myself reflecting on life and what it means to promote prosperity, in the broadest sense. That led me to the Legatum Institute‘s Prosperity Index.

The Prosperity Index provides a global assessment of wealth and wellbeing. The key findings are fascinating.  In particular, “Entrepreneurship and opportunity correlate more closely to a nation’s overall prosperity than any other factor.”  While other factors are still critical, it turns out entrepreneurship and opportunity is the best proxy for overall prosperity.

Here’s the relevant chart:

The 2010 Legatum Prosperity Index - Key Finding 1

Whatever difficulties we may face, it is still true that entrepreneurship – the creative search to help other people – is still the best way for people to lift one another into wealth and well being.

On capital, international development and raising the poor out of poverty

Via The Economic Role of Saving and Capital Goods – Mises Institute (emphasis mine):

What distinguishes contemporary life in the countries of Western civilization from conditions as they prevailed in earlier ages – and still exist for the greater number of those living today – is not the changes in the supply of labor and the skill of the workers and not the familiarity with the exploits of pure science and their utilization by the applied sciences, by technology. It is the amount of capital accumulated. The issue has been intentionally obscured by the verbiage employed by the international and national government agencies dealing with what is called foreign aid for the underdeveloped countries. What these poor countries need in order to adopt the Western methods of mass production for the satisfaction of the wants of the masses is not information about a “know how.” There is no secrecy about technological methods. They are taught at the technological schools and they are accurately described in textbooks, manuals, and periodical magazines. There are many experienced specialists available for the execution of every project that one may find practicable for these backward countries. What prevents a country like India from adopting the American methods of industry is the paucity of its supply of capital goods. As the Indian government’s confiscatory policies are deterring foreign capitalists from investing in India and as its prosocialist bigotry sabotages domestic accumulation of capital, their country depends on the alms that Western nations are giving to it.

The Government does not wish to balance the budget on the backs of the poorest. Fine. But let’s not kid ourselves: sustainable prosperity in the developing world will only come through capital accumulation: that is, through local, pro-capitalist policies.

It’s a notion we might pay attention to ourselves.

If the state taxes away ‘surplus’ cash, those people taxed are no longer free to save and invest that money. Apart from the disincentives to earning created by high taxes, those measures are prejudicial to saving and investing in the very capital goods which would raise real incomes for everyone.

Much the same can be said of inheritance tax. When capital goods are sold to pay taxes, the money which might have been invested in new capital merely changes hands and passes to the state. When that money funds the state’s present consumption or debt interest, new capital goods are not formed.

As for capital gains taxes, it’s becoming obvious that many increases in asset prices are due to currency debasement – inflation – so, far from taxing profits, capital gains taxes may actually erode capital by passing the poisonous benefits of inflation from investors to the state.

That is, inheritance taxes, capital gains taxes and complex “progressive” income taxes make the poor poorer than they would have been by diminishing the formation of new capital goods.

Those who are serious about raising the standard of living of the majority should not advocate higher tax rates for those with something to spare. If we really cared about the poor and those on modest incomes, we would slash taxes and radically simplify the tax code.

The Legatum Institute

On Thursday, I had lunch with the remarkable Legatum Institute. Their vision:

To advance human liberty and a more prosperous and secure world, through researching and promoting the integration of human dignity, liberty, and development.

To encourage the adoption of sound policies grounded in a holistic understanding of the human person, the wisdom and prudence of free markets, and a comprehensive approach to international development.

Perhaps uniquely amongst London-based think tanks, the Institute is part of a larger group comprising:

  • Legatum Capital: a private portfolio investment firm
  • Legatum Institute: this globally-focussed think tank
  • Legatum Foundation: the granting arm of the group, allocating capital to those in poverty and abject poverty
  • Legatum Ventures: investing in growing enterprises in the developing world
  • Legatum Centre at MIT: which provides educational programmes aimed at delivering economic progress and good governance in low-income countries through entrepreneurship and empowering ordinary citizens.

It’s a quite astonishing group of organisations committed to human flourishing, right across the range of what Legatum calls the  ProsperityLadder™.

I thoroughly recommend their Prosperity Index™ and their notion that “business is development”.